Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments December 5

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments December 5

Canola spent all of Monday’s session on the lower side and closed with losses. Pressure came from the lower soybean market and the lower Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets. Stats Canada will release their production report on Thursday. Their current estimate of canola production is 20.03 MMT and traders expect that amount to be increased in the report. In world news, Australia estimates this year’s canola production at 7.2 MMT, up 13% from last year.

In Tuesday’s session, canola climbed higher for most of the overnight session only to give up the gains and turn lower in the day session, closing with small losses. Overnight gains were due to spillover support from the higher crude oil market. But as that market pulled back in the day session, canola turned lower as well. Losses were limited by the gains in the soybean oil market. Stats Canada will release their December production report on Thursday.

Canola saw small losses overnight, but losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed sharply lower on Wednesday. Canola saw positioning ahead of Thursday morning’s Stats Canada report. The average trade estimate for canola production is 21.25 MMT vs. 20.03 MMT in the Sept. estimate and last year’s 19.24 MMT. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. Malaysian palm oil stocks are at their highest level in 6 years.

In Thursday’s session canola opened lower overnight but got back on the positive side late in the overnight session. The market dropped sharply lower when the Stats Canada report came out. Canola was able to trim losses late in the day session but still closed lower. Canola saw pressure from a negative Stats Canada report. The report put canola production at 21.8 MMT, 550,000 MT higher than the average trade estimate and 1.8 MMT higher than the Sept. estimate. Canola production was a new record, beating 2017’s 21.3 MMT. The national yield at 44.7 bu. was also a record. Losses were trimmed a bit by the gains in the soybean complex.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $21.25. Cash canola bids in Fargo were at $20.00. Cash bids in Velva were at $19.18.

For the week, January canola was at $617.90 down $32.80 while March canola was at $631.10 down $32.90.

Share: