Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 10

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 10

Canola started the week by opening lower overnight and then traded in a narrow range. Late in the overnight session the market turned positive and then added to the gains all through the rest of the session to close sharply higher. Support came from the sharply higher soybean complex. Speculative buying added to the gains. Most of Alberta and Saskatchewan are forecast to see rain on Monday.

On Tuesday Canola traded in a tight range on either side of unchanged overnight. But the market climbed higher throughout the day session and closed with solid gains. The Nov. contract saw its highest close since mid-December 2023 and has now closed higher for 5 sessions in a row. Support came from the strong gains in the soybean oil market as well as the higher Malaysian palm oil market. Gains were limited by this morning’s Stats Canada stocks report. As of March 31, Canadian canola stocks were at 8.3 MMT, at expectations, but up 17.5% over last year. The higher stocks were due to a 36% drop in canola exports. Domestic use (mainly crush) was up 11% from last year and a new record at 8.1 MMT.

Canola opened the overnight session lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session on Wednesday. Early selling spilled over from the lower US soybean complex. Light selling came from Tuesday’s disappointing Stats Canada Stocks estimate, which put canola stocks close to expectations but higher year over year. Technical selling was evident after canola traded to new highs. Forecasts for rain, which is alleviating drought fears added to the pressure, but it is slowing down planting progress. A pickup in farmer selling added to the pressure.

In Thursday’s session canola traded with small gains in the overnight but like soybeans, slipped to trade lower once the day session started. Early support was due to technical buying as canola bounced off support. But once the US soybean complex turned lower, canola followed. Additional pressure also spilled over from the lower rapeseed and palm oil market. Technical selling added the pressure as canola saw chart-based selling once canola failed to cross over resistance.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $13.75. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $21.75 Cash canola bids in Velva were at $21.28.

As of May 5, North Dakota’s canola planting was 10% complete vs. 4% last week and 6% average.

For the week, July canola was at $663.60 up $16.60 while Nov. canola was at $681.60 up $20.80.