Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 12

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 12

On Monday canola closed mixed with the front month July lower while the new crop contracts were firm. The old crop months slipped lower due to spill over pressure from the lower US soybean and soybean oil markets. Slow planting progress and adverse short term weather forecasts supported the new crop months. Light selling was tied to a lower EU rapeseed contract as well as from a lower palm oil market. Stats Canada will release their stocks estimate May 9.

Canola traded back and forth on either side of unchanged but found strength late in the session and closed with decent gains on Tuesday. Support came from Stats Canada’s report of March 31 canola stocks at 5.948 MMT. That was sharply below the average trade estimate of 6.9 MMT. Gains were limited by the lower soybean complex. Ukraine estimates this year’s sunflower production at 6.0 MMT vs 4.6 MMT last year.

Canola was lower overnight, got on the positive side early in Wednesday’s day session but then faded and closed with losses. The stronger Canadian dollar and sharp losses in the soybean oil market pressured canola. Losses were limited by tighter than expected stocks in Tuesday’s Stats Canada report.

Canola closed lower across the board on Thursday. Pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. The lower Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets added to the losses. Losses were limited by the weaker Canadian dollar, which was down more than ½ cent.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $20.60. Cash canola bids in Fargo were at $25.50 and bids in Velva were at $25.19.

As of May 7, ND had 3% of their canola planted vs 1% last week and 9% average.

For the week, July canola was at $712.90 down $22.20 and Nov. canola was at $690.60 down $20.40.