Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 3

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments May 3

To start the week canola saw small gains overnight then added to the gains in the day session. But the market faded late in the day session and canola closed with small losses. Gains were from the higher Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets. But the sharply lower soybean oil market pulled canola down late in the session. The Canadian Prairies are expected to see rain this week and cooler than normal temps. The EU’s rapeseed production is estimated at 18.1 MMT vs. 19.9 MMT last year while sunflower production is estimated at 10.75 MMT vs. 9.71 MMT last year.

Canola fell lower throughout Tuesday’s session, closing sharply lower. Pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market, which is already down over $2.50 this week after just two sessions. The lower Malaysian palm oil and EU rapeseed markets added to the losses. Much needed rains falling in parts of the Canadian Prairies added pressure.

In Wednesday’s session canola traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged overnight. But the market found strength in the day session and closed with solid gains. Support came from the higher soybean and soybean oil markets. Ideas that Tuesday’s losses were overdone added support. Forecasts for cold temps and snow in parts of the Canadian Plains added to the gains. Gains were limited by the sharply lower crude oil market. Manitoba released their first crop report of the season, but canola planted has not yet started in the province.

On Thursday canola spent the first part of the overnight session seeing small gains. Midway through the overnight session the market shot higher and held those gains into the day session to close sharply higher. Support came from the sharply higher soybean market. Speculative buying, cool temps and snow in the Canadian Prairies added support. Canada’s year to date canola exports is at 4.071 MMT, far lower than last year’s same week total of 6.039 MMT.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $13.75. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $21.45 Cash canola bids in Velva were at $20.81.

As of April 28, North Dakota’s canola planting was 4% complete vs. 1% last year and 2% average.

For the week, July canola was at $647.00 up $12.60 while Nov. canola was at $660.80 up $9.30.

For the month, July canola was down $18.10 while Nov. canola was down $10.10.

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