Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments Sept 27

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments Sept 27

Canola ended Monday’s session mixed with losses in the front month November contract and gains in the deferred contracts. Support came from the strong gains in the soybean complex. Rains across the western Canadian Prairies that are slowing harvest progress added support. But gains were limited by the stronger Canadian dollar and spillover pressure from the lower crude oil market.

In Tuesday’s session canola closed higher across the board, but off session highs. Early support spilled over from the sharp gains in the US soybean and soybean oil market. Light support came from a stronger EU rapeseed and stronger palm oil market. Gains were trimmed late in the session by reports that grain workers at the Port of Vancouver are on strike. Drought in the Black Sea region is resulting in a dramatic drop in sunflower production estimates. Oil World lowered Russia’s sunflower production to 17.1 MMT vs 18.4 MMT last year. Ukraine’s sunflower production is now estimated at 13.0 MMT vs 14.9 MMT last year. Oil World also reduced production estimates for Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

In Wednesday’s session canola was lower overnight but saw gains throughout the day session and closed with solid gains. Support came from the higher soybean complex. Gains were limited by the stronger Canadian dollar. Manitoba’s canola harvest is at 55% complete. Port workers in Vancouver are currently on strike. 52% of Canada’s grain exports are exported from Vancouver.

Canola opened Thursday’s session lower, recovered to trade with solid gains but then faded the session to close lower. Technical selling and profit taking pressure canola early, with harvest pressure causing most of the selling. Canola was able to shake off the selling pressure and push higher with support coming from a higher US soybean complex. A sharply higher palm oil market added support. But the gains in the canola was short lived as once the US soybean complex faded, so did canola. Stats Canada is estimating Canada’s canola export pace at 7.5 MMT, domestic use at 12.17 MMT, and ending stocks at 2.5 MMT.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $18.25. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $19.20. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $18.58.

As of Sept. 22, North Dakota’s sunflowers ray flowers dry were at 91% vs. 81% last week and 92% average. Bracts turned yellow were at 70% vs. 56% last week and 76% average. Bracts turned brown were at 31% vs. 21% last week and 38% average. The sunflower crop condition rating increased 2% to 68% g/e, 26% fair, and 6% p/vp.

As of Sept. 22, North Dakota’s canola harvest was at 69% complete vs. 58% last week and 75% average.

For the week, Nov. canola was at $603.80 up $14.90 and Jan. canola was at $616.30 up $15.20.

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