Cattle did it again this week. Cattle posted gains in three of the four sessions ending Thursday which resulted in both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trying to new all-time contract highs. The rally in cattle started in Sept of 2024 and has not seen much of a slowdown (other than two minor retracements). Strong demand, strong cash bids, cashes premium to futures, and tight supplies continue to be the main supporting factors that keep cattle surging forward. At this point, what is going to change the upward movement in cattle, likely fund selling or a dramatic drop in domestic demand.
Cattle opened the week posting solid gains in both contracts. Early strength was due to spillover support from last week’s strong cash trade, which was $3 to $5 above the previous week. Cash continues to lead cattle as futures remain at a discount to the cash. Light support also spilled over from the strong stock market, which has posted 9 straight higher closes. By the end of the session, both contracts had traded to new all-time highs and closed at new highs.
Buying continued to push cattle higher on Tuesday, but today’s gains were a bit more subdued. Cattle opened the session steady to lower and traded in a sloppy two-sided fashion for the first half of the day but found support in the second half of the day. Tight supplies, strong demand, and higher cash bids continue to support cattle. The 5-area weighted average steer price came in at $220, $35 above last year and up $20 since the start of the year. Support was also due to the need to try and bring futures more in line with cash. Futures are at a steep discount to cash.
Profit taking and technical selling was the main feature mid-week. Cattle traded mixed throughout the session, but selling took charge going into the close, pushing all of the contracts to end in the red. Early support came from reports of a light cash trade taking place at $2 higher than last week. But there was no follow-through which resulted in both cattle contracts to slip lower into the close.
Thursday’s session saw cattle rally sharply higher and closed at new all-time contract highs. Cattle traded mixed to start the session. Early strength pushed cattle up against resistance, which resulted in cattle seeing a quick setback as sell stops were triggered, but once traders got their footing back, cattle rallied higher, breaking through the day’s highs and rallying to new all-time highs. A strong cash trade supported the live cattle. Cash bids are running about $3 to $5 above last week. Feeder cattle broke through the $300 level for the first time in history. Strong demand, strong cash activity, and tight supplies. This rally in cattle started Sept 9 and up to Wednesday’s close, June live cattle rallied close to $44 while May feeder cattle have rallied close to $69.
As of May 4, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 35% g/e, 32% fair, and 33% p/vp, down 11% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $214.675 up $3.575. May feeder cattle closed at $297.975 up $3.025.
Cattle Weekly Comments May 9
Cattle Weekly Comments May 9
Cattle did it again this week. Cattle posted gains in three of the four sessions ending Thursday which resulted in both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trying to new all-time contract highs. The rally in cattle started in Sept of 2024 and has not seen much of a slowdown (other than two minor retracements). Strong demand, strong cash bids, cashes premium to futures, and tight supplies continue to be the main supporting factors that keep cattle surging forward. At this point, what is going to change the upward movement in cattle, likely fund selling or a dramatic drop in domestic demand.
Cattle opened the week posting solid gains in both contracts. Early strength was due to spillover support from last week’s strong cash trade, which was $3 to $5 above the previous week. Cash continues to lead cattle as futures remain at a discount to the cash. Light support also spilled over from the strong stock market, which has posted 9 straight higher closes. By the end of the session, both contracts had traded to new all-time highs and closed at new highs.
Buying continued to push cattle higher on Tuesday, but today’s gains were a bit more subdued. Cattle opened the session steady to lower and traded in a sloppy two-sided fashion for the first half of the day but found support in the second half of the day. Tight supplies, strong demand, and higher cash bids continue to support cattle. The 5-area weighted average steer price came in at $220, $35 above last year and up $20 since the start of the year. Support was also due to the need to try and bring futures more in line with cash. Futures are at a steep discount to cash.
Profit taking and technical selling was the main feature mid-week. Cattle traded mixed throughout the session, but selling took charge going into the close, pushing all of the contracts to end in the red. Early support came from reports of a light cash trade taking place at $2 higher than last week. But there was no follow-through which resulted in both cattle contracts to slip lower into the close.
Thursday’s session saw cattle rally sharply higher and closed at new all-time contract highs. Cattle traded mixed to start the session. Early strength pushed cattle up against resistance, which resulted in cattle seeing a quick setback as sell stops were triggered, but once traders got their footing back, cattle rallied higher, breaking through the day’s highs and rallying to new all-time highs. A strong cash trade supported the live cattle. Cash bids are running about $3 to $5 above last week. Feeder cattle broke through the $300 level for the first time in history. Strong demand, strong cash activity, and tight supplies. This rally in cattle started Sept 9 and up to Wednesday’s close, June live cattle rallied close to $44 while May feeder cattle have rallied close to $69.
As of May 4, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 35% g/e, 32% fair, and 33% p/vp, down 11% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $214.675 up $3.575. May feeder cattle closed at $297.975 up $3.025.