Cattle Weekly Comments Sept 27

Cattle Weekly Comments Sept 27

Cattle pushed higher with week, but it was not a convincing rally as most contracts were only able to end with small gains in most of the sessions this week.

Cattle opened the week with gains, faltered a little, but then rallied to end with gains. Early support came from a strong cash trade, which developed Friday. Cash bids ended the week $2 to $3 higher. Light support was also due to Friday’s surprisingly noneventful Sept COF report. The report came in close to expectations and continues to show no indication of herd expansion. Technically both cattle contracts are in between major support and resistance, which likely will result in both seeing a bit more strength before this rally ends.

Tuesday’s session had cattle open lower but recover to shake off early pressure and push higher. Early pressure was due to thoughts that Monday’s gains were overdone. But cattle were able to pop higher with support coming from an overall buying spree in the ag commodity sector. Technical selling was uncovered once cattle traded to resistance. It appears that cattle are up against major resistance levels now and it will take a little more bullish news to break above this level.

Selling took charge midweek as cattle opened the session lower across the board in what appeared to be starting off as a profit taking session. Technical selling was also evident as most of the cattle contracts are trading up against resistance. The lack of a cash trade this week kept a lid on the live cattle contracts, especially the front months. Feeder cattle gains were kept in check by spill over pressure from the higher grains. Cattle were able to push higher around midsession with technical buying in the feeder cattle the main supporting factor. By the close most feeder cattle contracts were sitting at major resistance, the old mid-April low, the bottom of the breakaway gap from mid Dec and the middle of the major selloff from the begging of Aug.

The selling pressure from Wednesday continue into Thursday’s session making it appear that cattle traders were ready for some profit taking after trading up to resistance levels on Wednesday. The front month live cattle contract was supported by reports of a stronger cash trade. Cash traded between $184 and $185. Last week’s beef export pace was estimated at 10,061 MT, which is a 7-week low. Feeder cattle were supported by a lower grain complex. Technically cattle are trading up against strong resistance levels.

The cash feeder cattle index is at $244.30.

As of Sept 22, Pasture and Range Conditions were estimated at 25% g/e, 30% fair, and 45% v/vp. 2% lower than last week.

For the week, October live cattle are at $183.70 up $1.275. Sept feeder cattle went off the board at $245.40 up 57.5 cents. October feeder cattle closed at $247.075 up $3.175.

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