Corn started the week by opening the overnight session steady but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turn higher in the early morning hours. But corn could not hold its gains and turned to trade mixed soon at the start of the day session. Early support spilled over from the higher wheat complex. Light support was due to weather forecasts for the Northern Plains, which are calling for another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in the next 1 to 5 days. If realized it would delay corn planting in the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt. Lack of progress on extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative added support. BAGE left their Argentina corn production estimate unchanged at 36 MMT. Traders are expecting to see corn planting progress close to 50 to 55% planted in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. As of May 4, Argentina corn harvest was estimated at 28% complete vs 37% average. As of May 5, Brazil’s corn harvest was estimated at 85% complete vs 87% average. Technically Monday’s close was friendly old crop but concerning for new crop.
On Tuesday corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout the session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s negative Crop Progress report, which showed better planting progress than expected. Light selling was tied to reports that China cancelled their third corn US corn purchase, a 272 TMT sale. Losses were kept in check early from expectations that at this point it looks very unlikely that the Black Sea Initiative will be extended, which might help bring some export demand back to the US. The market once again seems to be ignoring the issues in the Northern Plains. Rain delays continue to plague ND, western MN, and northern SD, which is the region that had planting issues in 2022 and the same region that is likely supposed to be responsible for 1.3 million acres of additional corn acres in 2023.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened the overnight session higher but turned to post losses and extended session losses soon after the opening bell. Early selling was tied to pressure from rapid planting progress as well as from the recent export cancellations. Corn was able to bounce off support and trade in the black during the day session with support coming from technical support as well as from expectations that planting progress in the Northern Plains could be delayed for another week.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was neutral to corn coming in at 965,000 barrels, which was down 11,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.29 million barrels, a decrease of 72.000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand rebounded and is back at the top end of the five-year average.
Corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout Thursday’s day session. Early selling was tied to expectations that Friday’s report will be negative corn, but that has been expected since the Ag Outlook Forum released their estimates in Feb, so those numbers should be baked into the market already. Light selling was tied to reports of lower economic numbers from China, which is a signal that their economy is not recovering as fast as expected.
Light selling was tied to SA production estimates. CONAB is now estimating Brazil’s corn production at 125.5 MMT vs 124.8 MMT previously and vs USDA’s projection of 125 MMT. Rosario is estimating Argentina’s corn crop at 32.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and vs USDA’s 37.0 MMT.
Position squaring ahead of Friday’s Crop Production report added pressure was most expect the report to be negative corn. Early estimates have corn production at 15.12 BB vs 13.37 BB last year. Yield is estimated at 180.7 bus vs 173.3 bus last year. Old crop stocks were estimated at 1.366 BB vs 1.342 BB last month but new crop stocks are estimated at 2.09 BB vs 1.34 BB last year.
July corn support is at $5.75 while resistance is at $6.25. Dec corn support is at $5.25 while resistance is at $5.65.
For the week, July corn was at $5.8625 down 10.25 cents. Dec corn was at $5.0875 down 26.0 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 12
Corn Weekly Comments May 12
Corn started the week by opening the overnight session steady but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turn higher in the early morning hours. But corn could not hold its gains and turned to trade mixed soon at the start of the day session. Early support spilled over from the higher wheat complex. Light support was due to weather forecasts for the Northern Plains, which are calling for another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in the next 1 to 5 days. If realized it would delay corn planting in the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt. Lack of progress on extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative added support. BAGE left their Argentina corn production estimate unchanged at 36 MMT. Traders are expecting to see corn planting progress close to 50 to 55% planted in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. As of May 4, Argentina corn harvest was estimated at 28% complete vs 37% average. As of May 5, Brazil’s corn harvest was estimated at 85% complete vs 87% average. Technically Monday’s close was friendly old crop but concerning for new crop.
On Tuesday corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout the session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s negative Crop Progress report, which showed better planting progress than expected. Light selling was tied to reports that China cancelled their third corn US corn purchase, a 272 TMT sale. Losses were kept in check early from expectations that at this point it looks very unlikely that the Black Sea Initiative will be extended, which might help bring some export demand back to the US. The market once again seems to be ignoring the issues in the Northern Plains. Rain delays continue to plague ND, western MN, and northern SD, which is the region that had planting issues in 2022 and the same region that is likely supposed to be responsible for 1.3 million acres of additional corn acres in 2023.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened the overnight session higher but turned to post losses and extended session losses soon after the opening bell. Early selling was tied to pressure from rapid planting progress as well as from the recent export cancellations. Corn was able to bounce off support and trade in the black during the day session with support coming from technical support as well as from expectations that planting progress in the Northern Plains could be delayed for another week.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was neutral to corn coming in at 965,000 barrels, which was down 11,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.29 million barrels, a decrease of 72.000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand rebounded and is back at the top end of the five-year average.
Corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout Thursday’s day session. Early selling was tied to expectations that Friday’s report will be negative corn, but that has been expected since the Ag Outlook Forum released their estimates in Feb, so those numbers should be baked into the market already. Light selling was tied to reports of lower economic numbers from China, which is a signal that their economy is not recovering as fast as expected.
Light selling was tied to SA production estimates. CONAB is now estimating Brazil’s corn production at 125.5 MMT vs 124.8 MMT previously and vs USDA’s projection of 125 MMT. Rosario is estimating Argentina’s corn crop at 32.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and vs USDA’s 37.0 MMT.
Position squaring ahead of Friday’s Crop Production report added pressure was most expect the report to be negative corn. Early estimates have corn production at 15.12 BB vs 13.37 BB last year. Yield is estimated at 180.7 bus vs 173.3 bus last year. Old crop stocks were estimated at 1.366 BB vs 1.342 BB last month but new crop stocks are estimated at 2.09 BB vs 1.34 BB last year.
July corn support is at $5.75 while resistance is at $6.25. Dec corn support is at $5.25 while resistance is at $5.65.
For the week, July corn was at $5.8625 down 10.25 cents. Dec corn was at $5.0875 down 26.0 cents.