Corn Weekly Comments May 26

Corn Weekly Comments May 26

Corn started the week by opening the overnight session higher and held its gains throughout the rest of Monday’s session. Technical buying gave corn support early in the session as traders tried to correct an oversold market condition. Light support was also due to today’s weather forecast calling for potential rain for the Northern Plains every day for the next 15 days. The final planting date for corn is May 25 for most of the region, and with futures prices at a $1 discount to the base crop insurance price, there might not be much of an incentive to push planting past the final date. Last week’s corn shipments pace was friendly coming in at the upper end of trader’s expectations. As of May 18, Argentina had 37% of their corn in the bin vs 45% last year. As of May 15, corn harvest in Brazil was estimated at 95% complete vs 93% average.

In Tuesday’s session corn opened the overnight session lower and extended session losses early. Technical selling was the main focus of traders as planting progress continued to advance, although not as fast as expected. Only four states are estimating slower than average corn planting progress, CO, KS, TX, and ND. ND is reporting planting at 32% complete vs 5% last week and 50% average. This leaves 50% of the state’s corn to be planted. The final corn planting date for crop insurance for ND is May 25 for most of the state and May 31 for the very southeast corner. Light support spilled over from the higher wheat exchanges as both corn and wheat remained tied today. Dr Cordonnier left both his Argentina corn production estimate and Brazil’s corn production estimate unchanged at 35 MMT and 125 MMT. A change in the weather forecast added support as now the Corn Belt is not expected to see much in the way of rain for the next 15 days. The northern regions of the Corn Belt have already gone without rain for the past week.

On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session lower and continued to trade with minor losses throughout the night session. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from the lower wheat complex. Losses were trimmed once the day session kicked into gear, with early support coming from the expectation that not all of the corn acres in the Northern Plains will get planted due to Thursday being the last planting date for a majority of ND and northern MN. Dr Cordonnier lowered his acreage estimate for the US by 500,000 acres due to the slow planting progress and wet conditions in the Northern Plains. Concerns are starting to build on the hot dry conditions in IA and northern IL as both regions have not seen much measurable rain in the past week to two weeks. No rain is in the forecast for the next week either.

Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 983,000 barrels, 4,000 barrels below the previous week and the second lowest production estimate in 7 years. Stocks were estimated at 22.04 million barrels, 1.15 million less than the previous week and the lowest in 27 weeks. Gas demand rebounded.

In Thursday’s session corn opened the overnight session higher but faded to trade in a back-and-forth fashion throughout the overnight. Early selling was tied to last week’s export sales estimate, which was negative for the second week in a row. But by the time the day session started, corn turned to trade mixed with July posting gains while the deferred months were lower. The front month was supported by supply concerns as rumors keep floating around that some of the recent Chinese cancellations were due to the US cancelling the sale due to not being able to source product. Pressure also came from reports that China and Russia have entered into a trade agreement. May 25 is crop insurance final date for planting corn in most of ND, northern MN, and SD. Only the counties of Sargent, Ransom, Richland, and Cass have a final plant date of May 31. As of Sunday, ND had 38% of their corn planted, which means 2.55 million acres were left to plant. It is likely not all of the intended corn acres in ND will get planted.

July corn support is at $5.50 while resistance is at $6.25. Dec corn support is at $5.00 while resistance is at $5.65.

For the week, July corn was at $6.04 up 49.5 cent. Dec corn was at $5.345 up 34.75 cents.