To start the week corn opened the session steady but faded the night to end lower and then expanded session losses once the day session got started. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts, calling for the next 7 to 10 days to be warm and dry, which should push planting progress. Pressure was also due to news that OPEC has decided to once again increase crude oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day in June. The trade is also a bit worried about Trump’s budget proposal that trims EPA significantly, which could likely spill over to trimming the budget for biofuels. As of May 2, Brazil was estimating first crop corn harvest at 87% complete, vs 82% last week and vs 84% average. South Korea bought 65 TMT of US corn. The continued unwinding of bull spreads added direction.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session higher and traded with gains throughout the night. Selling moved into the corn market once the day session started. Bull spreading was the main feature once the day session started, but by midsession even the front month contracts slipped into the red. Monday’s Crop Progress report was neutral corn as it showed slower than expected planting progress than expected as planting is now only 1% ahead of average. But weather forecasts are calling for ideal conditions over the next 7 to 10 days which will help producers rapidly advance planting progress. Dr Cordonnier increased Brazil’s corn production estimate 1 MMT to 126 MMT but left Argentina’s production unchanged at 49 MMT. Celeres is estimating Brazil’s corn production at 135.4 MMT vs 134.6 MMT previously. South Korean feed mills are reported to have bought 200 TMT of US corn overnight. No confirmation yet.
In Wednesday’s session corn gapped higher and rallied to post strong gains during the night session. Early support came from technical buying spurred on by reports that China and the US are going to start trade talks later this week. Reports that trade deals are nearing completion with some other countries added to the support. Selling returned to the corn market around midsession with most of the selling tied to Trump’s comments that he will not make any adjustments to China’s tariffs ahead of trade talks. Light selling was also tied to close to ideal planting conditions across the US.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.02 million barrels, down 20,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.19 million, down 198,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined for the second week in a row.
On Thursday corn opened the session higher but slipped to trade steady by early morning. Early support was due to technical buying as traders clean up an oversold market condition. Light support was also due to strong demand as overnight Mexico was in and bought 205 TMT of US corn (40 TMT old and 2165 TMT new) while an unknown destination was in and bought 115 TMT of US corn. Last week’s better than expected export sales pace added support early as well. Gains were trimmed from a disappointing trade deal with UK being announced. The new trade agreement does not include corn. Ideal weather forecasts added pressure as forecasts call for warm dry conditions to dominate the Plains and Corn Belt over the next 7 to 10 days. At this point, there is not much if any weather premium built into corn.
Ahead of USDA Crop Production report Monday, USDA is estimating old crop stocks at 1.443 BB vs 1.465 BB last month. New crop production is estimated at 15.787 BB vs 15.585 BB from Feb’s Ag Outlook Forum and vs 14.867 BB last year. Yield is estimated at 181.1 bus vs 181.0 from the Ag Outlook Forum and vs 179.3 bus last year. New crop stocks are estimated at 2.02 BB.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, July corn was at $4.4975 down 19.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.42 down 8.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 9
Corn Weekly Comments May 9
To start the week corn opened the session steady but faded the night to end lower and then expanded session losses once the day session got started. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts, calling for the next 7 to 10 days to be warm and dry, which should push planting progress. Pressure was also due to news that OPEC has decided to once again increase crude oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day in June. The trade is also a bit worried about Trump’s budget proposal that trims EPA significantly, which could likely spill over to trimming the budget for biofuels. As of May 2, Brazil was estimating first crop corn harvest at 87% complete, vs 82% last week and vs 84% average. South Korea bought 65 TMT of US corn. The continued unwinding of bull spreads added direction.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session higher and traded with gains throughout the night. Selling moved into the corn market once the day session started. Bull spreading was the main feature once the day session started, but by midsession even the front month contracts slipped into the red. Monday’s Crop Progress report was neutral corn as it showed slower than expected planting progress than expected as planting is now only 1% ahead of average. But weather forecasts are calling for ideal conditions over the next 7 to 10 days which will help producers rapidly advance planting progress. Dr Cordonnier increased Brazil’s corn production estimate 1 MMT to 126 MMT but left Argentina’s production unchanged at 49 MMT. Celeres is estimating Brazil’s corn production at 135.4 MMT vs 134.6 MMT previously. South Korean feed mills are reported to have bought 200 TMT of US corn overnight. No confirmation yet.
In Wednesday’s session corn gapped higher and rallied to post strong gains during the night session. Early support came from technical buying spurred on by reports that China and the US are going to start trade talks later this week. Reports that trade deals are nearing completion with some other countries added to the support. Selling returned to the corn market around midsession with most of the selling tied to Trump’s comments that he will not make any adjustments to China’s tariffs ahead of trade talks. Light selling was also tied to close to ideal planting conditions across the US.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.02 million barrels, down 20,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.19 million, down 198,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined for the second week in a row.
On Thursday corn opened the session higher but slipped to trade steady by early morning. Early support was due to technical buying as traders clean up an oversold market condition. Light support was also due to strong demand as overnight Mexico was in and bought 205 TMT of US corn (40 TMT old and 2165 TMT new) while an unknown destination was in and bought 115 TMT of US corn. Last week’s better than expected export sales pace added support early as well. Gains were trimmed from a disappointing trade deal with UK being announced. The new trade agreement does not include corn. Ideal weather forecasts added pressure as forecasts call for warm dry conditions to dominate the Plains and Corn Belt over the next 7 to 10 days. At this point, there is not much if any weather premium built into corn.
Ahead of USDA Crop Production report Monday, USDA is estimating old crop stocks at 1.443 BB vs 1.465 BB last month. New crop production is estimated at 15.787 BB vs 15.585 BB from Feb’s Ag Outlook Forum and vs 14.867 BB last year. Yield is estimated at 181.1 bus vs 181.0 from the Ag Outlook Forum and vs 179.3 bus last year. New crop stocks are estimated at 2.02 BB.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, July corn was at $4.4975 down 19.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.42 down 8.25 cents.