Soybean Weekly Comments March 28

Soybean Weekly Comments March 28

To start the week soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but saw steady gains throughout the day session and closed with strong gains. Technical buying and positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports supported the market. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Brazil’s crop is now 69% harvested vs. 62% last week and 69% average. The USDA ag attaché in Brazil estimates the country’s soybean production at 152.6 MMT vs. USDA’s current estimate of 155.0 MMT.

On Tuesday soybeans opened the overnight session lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to improving weather conditions in SA as Argentina is expected to see drier conditions along with Brazil, which should help advance harvest activity. The lack of export demand added pressure to the soybeans as although most are expecting Brazil’s export season to end soon, the US is not seeing any interest other than routine exports. Position squaring ahead of Thursday’s reports was also evident as traders seem to be reluctant to take a position ahead of the reports.

In Wednesday’s session soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and spent the entire session on the lower side in a day of choppy trading. Technical selling and positioning ahead of tomorrow’s reports were the main drivers of the market today. The trade expects to see higher stocks and higher planted acres compared to last year. Drier conditions in South America that will aid in harvest progress added pressure. And as the South American crop becomes available, traders are not expecting to see anything exciting in tomorrow’s weekly export sales report. Trade estimates range from 11 MB to 25 MB for old crop sales and under 2 MB for new crop sales.

Support for May soybeans is at $11.25 while resistance is at $12.35.

For the week, May soybeans were at $11.915 down 1.0 cent and July soybeans were at $12.0525 down 0.25 cent. May soybean meal was at $337.70 down $1.40. May soybean oil was at $47.95 up 31 cents.

For the month, May soybeans were up 50.75 cents and July soybeans were up 54.0 cents. May soybean meal was up $8.50. May soybean oil was up $2.74.

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