Soybean Weekly Comments May 10

Soybean Weekly Comments May 10

To start the week soybeans saw small losses for most of the overnight session, but the market climbed higher throughout the day session and closed sharply higher. Overnight pressure came from profit taking after last week’s strong gains. Day session support came from flooding in the RGDS state of Brazil as it could lower production between 1 and 2 MMT. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 96% complete vs. 97% average. But RGDS is only 75% harvested vs. 88% average due to the recent flooding. A transportation worker strike in Argentina added support as the strike will stop movement of grain. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations.

Soybeans traded back and forth in Tuesday’s choppy session and closed mixed, with small losses in the front months and decent gains in the new crop contracts. The Nov. contract closed at levels not seen since the end of Dec. 2023. Overnight pressure came from profit taking after yesterday’s steep gains. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Flooding in RGDS in Brazil and rains delaying planting in the US were supportive.

On Wednesday soybeans opened the overnight session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to rumors China bought more soybeans from Brazil. Light selling was tied to forecasts calling for drier conditions next week, which should help advance planting progress. Technical selling was also evident as profit taking set in after Nov soybeans traded to and closed at a new high for the year yesterday. Losses were kept in check early from news that Argentina oilseed crush and dock workers will go on strike tomorrow. Dr Cordonnier left his soybean production estimates unchanged for both Argentina (51 MMT) and Brazil (147 MMT).

In Thursday’s session soybeans opened the overnight session steady but found support and pushed higher to end the night session with modest gains. Early support came from technical buying as just as wheat and corn, soybeans were able to bounce off support. Once the day session started soybeans sold off with most of the pressure from weather forecasts calling for a planting window over the next 3 to 5 days. Light selling was also due to reports that China imported 8.57 MMT of soybeans in April, which was a record for that month.

Producers continue to target $12.35 Nov to advance soybean sales.

Support for July soybeans is at $11.48 while resistance is at $13.05.

For the week, July soybeans were at $12.19 up 4.0 cents and Nov. soybeans were at $12.0575 up 4.75 cents. July soybean meal was at $371.90 down 30 cents and July soybean oil was at $44.44 up $1.36.

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