To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then added to the losses to end the session with double-digit losses. Pressure came from good weather conditions and expectations of solid planting progress in the afternoon’s crop progress report. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. That market was lower on the Trump administration’s 2026 budget that showed a 55% cut to EPA which could affect the 45Z biofuels subsidies. On the trade front, China said it was reviewing proposals made by the US to start trade talks, but Trump must cancel all tariffs before talks can begin. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side in Tuesday’s session but were able to trim the losses a bit later in the day session to close with small losses. Forecasts for warm and dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days pressured the market. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report put soybean planting at 30% complete, which was at the low end of the range of trade estimates but higher than the 5-year average of 22%. Technical selling added pressure. Dr Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 169.0 MMT (same as USDA) and Argentina at 50.0 MMT (1.0 MMT higher than USDA).
On Wednesday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session on the news that US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend to discuss the tariffs and that hopefully the meeting can start to de-escalate tensions. The market remained higher overnight and into the day session only to fade late in the session, closing with small losses. The market faded on news that President Trump said he won’t consider lowering tariffs on Chinese goods in order to jump start trade talks. Overall good weather for planting this week added pressure. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market due to uncertainty about the future of biofuels after huge cuts to EPA’s budget were announced.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened the session lower but firmed to trade with gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Selling did not take hold of soybeans until about midsession. Early pressure was due to Wednesday’s disappointing news that the US will not make any concessions to China ahead of the start of trade negotiations. This will likely result in the trade talks to drag out. Soybeans were able to recover and trade with gains with support coming from weather forecasts calling for good planting conditions, which has most traders believing corn acreage could come in above 95 million. Light support was also due to news Pakistan bought 225 TMT of new crop soybeans. Gains were trimmed late in the session due to spill over pressure from the other grains.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for old crop ending stocks is 368 MB vs. 375 MB last month.
For new crop, the average trade guess for soybean production is 4.338 BB vs. 4.366 BB last year and ending stocks at 375 MB vs. 375 MB last year.
For world numbers, the average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 169.3 MMT vs. 169.0 MMT last month, Argentina’s production at 49.4 MMT vs. 49.0 MMT last month, 2024/25 ending stocks at 122.7 MMT vs. 122.5 MMT last month, and 2025/26 ending stocks at 127.2 MMT vs. 122.5 MMT last year.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, July soybeans were at $10.5175 down 6.25 cents while Aug soybeans were at $10.4725 down 4.0 cents. July soybean meal was at $294.10 down $2.80 and July soybean oil was at $48.57 down 87 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments May 9
Soybean Weekly Comments May 9
To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then added to the losses to end the session with double-digit losses. Pressure came from good weather conditions and expectations of solid planting progress in the afternoon’s crop progress report. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. That market was lower on the Trump administration’s 2026 budget that showed a 55% cut to EPA which could affect the 45Z biofuels subsidies. On the trade front, China said it was reviewing proposals made by the US to start trade talks, but Trump must cancel all tariffs before talks can begin. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side in Tuesday’s session but were able to trim the losses a bit later in the day session to close with small losses. Forecasts for warm and dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days pressured the market. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report put soybean planting at 30% complete, which was at the low end of the range of trade estimates but higher than the 5-year average of 22%. Technical selling added pressure. Dr Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 169.0 MMT (same as USDA) and Argentina at 50.0 MMT (1.0 MMT higher than USDA).
On Wednesday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session on the news that US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend to discuss the tariffs and that hopefully the meeting can start to de-escalate tensions. The market remained higher overnight and into the day session only to fade late in the session, closing with small losses. The market faded on news that President Trump said he won’t consider lowering tariffs on Chinese goods in order to jump start trade talks. Overall good weather for planting this week added pressure. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market due to uncertainty about the future of biofuels after huge cuts to EPA’s budget were announced.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened the session lower but firmed to trade with gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Selling did not take hold of soybeans until about midsession. Early pressure was due to Wednesday’s disappointing news that the US will not make any concessions to China ahead of the start of trade negotiations. This will likely result in the trade talks to drag out. Soybeans were able to recover and trade with gains with support coming from weather forecasts calling for good planting conditions, which has most traders believing corn acreage could come in above 95 million. Light support was also due to news Pakistan bought 225 TMT of new crop soybeans. Gains were trimmed late in the session due to spill over pressure from the other grains.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for old crop ending stocks is 368 MB vs. 375 MB last month.
For new crop, the average trade guess for soybean production is 4.338 BB vs. 4.366 BB last year and ending stocks at 375 MB vs. 375 MB last year.
For world numbers, the average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 169.3 MMT vs. 169.0 MMT last month, Argentina’s production at 49.4 MMT vs. 49.0 MMT last month, 2024/25 ending stocks at 122.7 MMT vs. 122.5 MMT last month, and 2025/26 ending stocks at 127.2 MMT vs. 122.5 MMT last year.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, July soybeans were at $10.5175 down 6.25 cents while Aug soybeans were at $10.4725 down 4.0 cents. July soybean meal was at $294.10 down $2.80 and July soybean oil was at $48.57 down 87 cents.