Soybean Weekly Comments Nov 29

Soybean Weekly Comments Nov 29

To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and saw decent gains in a choppy session. But soybeans faded late in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from solid export shipment numbers. Marketing year-to-date shipments are running 12% ahead of last year’s pace. Technical buying added support. Gains were limited by reports of good rains falling in northern Brazil and much of Argentina over the weekend. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 86% complete vs. 75% last year and 79% average.

In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened lower but reversed direction in the overnight session. By the end of the night session soybeans were higher, but those gains faded once the day session started. Early support spilled over from the higher soybean oil as well as from rumors China was in and bought multiple cargos of US soybeans for Feb delivery. Soybeans lost their gains once the day session started with selling tied to reports that Trump is looking at increasing China’s tariffs by 10% pushing them to 25%. This is better than the 60% he talked about on the campaign trail. Good growing conditions in SA added pressure once the day session started. This was highlighted by Dr Cordonnier’s production estimate, which saw a 2 MMT increase in Brazil’s production now estimated at 168 MMT but left Argentina’s production unchanged at 57 MMT.

Soybeans stayed on the higher side in a choppy session and closed with small gains on Wednesday. Light support came from USDA’s announcement of a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China. Additional support came from the sharply lower dollar. Short-term export sales may pick up if other countries are worried about trade wars when Trump returns to office. Losses were limited by good growing conditions in South America. Brazil’s July through November exports is estimated at 27.5 MMT vs. 38.4 MMT last year.

Target $10.85 to advance sales.

Jan soybeans support is at $9.75 while resistance is at $10.85.

For the week, January soybeans were at $9.9075 up 7.25 cents and March soybeans were at $9.9725 up 5.0 cents. Dec soybean meal was at $288.20 down $1.00 and Dec soybean oil was at $41.61 down 16 cents.

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