Soybean Weekly Comments Oct 25

Soybean Weekly Comments Oct 25

Soybeans saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with good gains on Monday. Support came from improving demand. Last week’s export shipments were at the high end of trade expectations. In addition, USDA reported sales of 116,000 MT of soybeans to unknown and another 264,000 MT to unknown. Bargain buying after soybeans dropped to 8-week lows last Friday added support. Gains were limited by good rains that fell over northern Brazil over the weekend. Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated at 17% planted vs. 22% average.

In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Support came from technical buying after the market bounced off support levels. Improving export demand added support. There are speculation Chinese companies may buy a large amount of US soybeans before the election as they are worried about Trump winning and then starting another trade war with China. Forecasts are still calling for good rains for parts of Brazil over the next 2 weeks. Dr Cordonnier left his soybean production estimate for Brazil unchanged at 165 MMT (USDA is at 169 MMT) and Argentina unchanged at 57 MMT (USDA is at 51 MMT).

Soybeans opened Wednesday’s session with gains but turned lower midway through the overnight session. The market was able to rebound in the day session and close with decent gains. Support came from another day of export sales announcements. USDA announced sales of 130,000 MT of soybeans to China and 259,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. There have been reported daily sales 5 out of the last 7 sessions. Ahead of tomorrow’s weekly export sales report, sales estimates range anywhere from 44 MB to 92 MB. Brazil’s marketing year to date soybean exports total 91.1 MMT, a bit lower than last year’s 92.0 MMT. Gains were limited by rains being added in the 11-to-15-day forecasts for Brazil.

Soybeans traded mostly on the higher side in a choppy session but faded in the day session and closed right around unchanged on Thursday. Improving export demand supported the market. USDA announced a sale of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown. Daily soybean export sales have been reported in 6 of the last 8 sessions. Last week’s export sales were at the high end of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales are now running 8% ahead of last year’s pace. But good rains in Argentina over the last 24 hours pressured the market in the day session. Spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market added pressure.

Target $10.85 to advance sales.

Nov soybeans support is at $9.50 while resistance is at $10.85.

For the week, Nov. soybeans were at $9.8775 up 17.75 cents and Jan soybeans were at $9.975 up 14.75 cents. Dec soybean meal was at $305.80 down $9.80 and Dec soybean oil was at $44.15 up $2.33.

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