To start the week soybeans saw slow, steady gains overnight and then turned sharply higher at the start of the day session and held on to those gains to close sharply higher. Improving demand supported soybeans as USDA report a sale of 165,000 MT to unknown. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Brazil’s slow start to soybean planting added support as the country’s planting is 1% complete vs. 2% average while the Parana state is at 3% complete vs. 7% average. Technical buying also added support. The afternoon’s crop progress report left soybean conditions unchanged at 64% g/e. Most of the major states were either unchanged or up 1%. The outliers were SD: 68% (+7), IL: 71% (-1), IN: 61% (-2) and OH: 35% (-5).
Soybeans opened lower but quickly recovered and traded with gains throughout most of the night and day session on Tuesday. Early pressure was due to Monday’s report, but soybeans were able to brush the reports negative tone off quickly once the news from China was released. Not only has China lowered the amount of reserve their banks have to hold, but China also lowered mortgage interest rates and reduced the amount of down payment needed to be made on home purchases along with many more stimulus programs all in an attempt to spur the Chinese economy. Expectations are that if the Chinese economy gets rolling, demand for US goods will increase. Light support was also due to disappointing yield reports as so far most are reporting lower than expected yields. Gains were trimmed late in the session from profit taking and technical selling.
On Wednesday soybeans were mostly lower overnight but saw gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Expectations of China buying added support. There are rumors China is buying 12 to 16 cargoes of US soybeans this week, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Hot and dry conditions in South America added support. Northern Brazil is not expected to see any rain until mid-October while the western and northern areas of Argentina are also dry. Planting in Brazil has gotten off to a slow start. Trade estimates ahead of tomorrow’s weekly export sales report estimates sales anywhere between 33 MB and 75 MB. Technical buying added to the gains.
Soybeans started Thursday’s session on the defense due to harvest pressure but quickly turned higher with support coming from weather concerns. Hurricane Helene is expected to come on shore near the panhandle of FL and track north through the Mid-Atlantic states where little soybean harvest has occurred. This will like result in lost production. Hot dry conditions are expected to continue to dominate Brazil over the next 7 to 10 days, which will continue to delay planting progress. Reports that China is looking to infuse their economy with 1 trillion yuan added support. Technical selling was evident once soybeans failed to cross over the $10.65 resistance level.
Ahead of Monday’s quarterly grain stocks report, the average trade estimate for Sept. 1 stocks is 351 MB vs. 264 MB last year. For old crop 2023/24, the average trade estimate for soybean production is 4.164 BB vs. 4.165 BB previously.
Target Nov $10.85 to advance sales.
Nov soybeans support is at $9.50 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, Nov. soybeans were at $10.6575 up 53.75 cents and Jan soybeans were at $10.83 up 53.5 cents. Oct soybean meal was at $343.70 up $26.30 and Oct soybean oil was at $42.18 up 2 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments Sept 27
Soybean Weekly Comments Sept 27
To start the week soybeans saw slow, steady gains overnight and then turned sharply higher at the start of the day session and held on to those gains to close sharply higher. Improving demand supported soybeans as USDA report a sale of 165,000 MT to unknown. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Brazil’s slow start to soybean planting added support as the country’s planting is 1% complete vs. 2% average while the Parana state is at 3% complete vs. 7% average. Technical buying also added support. The afternoon’s crop progress report left soybean conditions unchanged at 64% g/e. Most of the major states were either unchanged or up 1%. The outliers were SD: 68% (+7), IL: 71% (-1), IN: 61% (-2) and OH: 35% (-5).
Soybeans opened lower but quickly recovered and traded with gains throughout most of the night and day session on Tuesday. Early pressure was due to Monday’s report, but soybeans were able to brush the reports negative tone off quickly once the news from China was released. Not only has China lowered the amount of reserve their banks have to hold, but China also lowered mortgage interest rates and reduced the amount of down payment needed to be made on home purchases along with many more stimulus programs all in an attempt to spur the Chinese economy. Expectations are that if the Chinese economy gets rolling, demand for US goods will increase. Light support was also due to disappointing yield reports as so far most are reporting lower than expected yields. Gains were trimmed late in the session from profit taking and technical selling.
On Wednesday soybeans were mostly lower overnight but saw gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Expectations of China buying added support. There are rumors China is buying 12 to 16 cargoes of US soybeans this week, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Hot and dry conditions in South America added support. Northern Brazil is not expected to see any rain until mid-October while the western and northern areas of Argentina are also dry. Planting in Brazil has gotten off to a slow start. Trade estimates ahead of tomorrow’s weekly export sales report estimates sales anywhere between 33 MB and 75 MB. Technical buying added to the gains.
Soybeans started Thursday’s session on the defense due to harvest pressure but quickly turned higher with support coming from weather concerns. Hurricane Helene is expected to come on shore near the panhandle of FL and track north through the Mid-Atlantic states where little soybean harvest has occurred. This will like result in lost production. Hot dry conditions are expected to continue to dominate Brazil over the next 7 to 10 days, which will continue to delay planting progress. Reports that China is looking to infuse their economy with 1 trillion yuan added support. Technical selling was evident once soybeans failed to cross over the $10.65 resistance level.
Ahead of Monday’s quarterly grain stocks report, the average trade estimate for Sept. 1 stocks is 351 MB vs. 264 MB last year. For old crop 2023/24, the average trade estimate for soybean production is 4.164 BB vs. 4.165 BB previously.
Target Nov $10.85 to advance sales.
Nov soybeans support is at $9.50 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, Nov. soybeans were at $10.6575 up 53.75 cents and Jan soybeans were at $10.83 up 53.5 cents. Oct soybean meal was at $343.70 up $26.30 and Oct soybean oil was at $42.18 up 2 cents.