To start the week wheat opened steady to higher but slipped into the red for most of the night. Technical buying helped wheat turn positive at the start of the day session but the pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets proved to be too much for the wheat bulls to overcome. Class spreading was the main focus of traders’ attention early in the session as traders unwound long winter wheat short Mpls wheat spreads. Once the spread activity dried up, wheat fell prey to spill over pressure from the lower corn and soybeans complex. Light selling was also due to concerns that the war in Ukraine could be drawing to a close, which would result in Russian sanctions to be lifted. ABARES is not estimating Australia’s wheat production at 35.6 MMT vs 33.8 MMT previously. USDA is already at 36 MMT. Argus is estimating Russia’s 2026 wheat production at 86.5 MMT vs 88.4 MMT last year.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session steady to unchanged and traded flat for most of the session. But wheat managed to turn mixed by the end of the night session due to support from Putin’s comments about the war in Ukraine. Putin is threatening to close off access to the sea which will result in Ukraine not being able to move product. Also, Putin threatened that if Russia’s ships are going to continue to be targeted, he will start to target ships in the sea, no matter whose they are. Gains were kept in check by another lower session in Matif wheat, which is trading at new contract lows. Although the weekly Crop Progress report is done, some individual states are still reporting crop ratings. KS’s wheat crop improved by 4% last week to 66% g/e.
All of the wheat exchanges closed with small losses on Wednesday with Mpls seeing slightly greater losses than the winter wheat markets. Mpls was pressured by trade estimates ahead of tomorrow’s Stats Canada production report. The average trade estimate for all wheat production is 38.49 MMT vs. 36.62 MMT in the Sept. estimate and last year’s 35.94 MMT. This would be an all-time record if realized. South Korea bought 30,000 MT of US milling wheat while Jordan issued a tender for up to 120,000 MT of wheat. Ukraine has planted 4.74 million hectares (or 11.7 million acres) this fall and planting is 99% complete.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with Mpls wheat steady while both winter wheat exchanges started the session higher. By the end of the night session Mpls had pushed to post gains while both winter wheat exchanges faded lower. By the time the day session started, wheat had switched rolls as the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher while Mpls faded lower. Mpls was under pressure from a negative Stats Canada report, which estimated Canada’s wheat crop at an all-time record 39.95 MMT. This was sharply above trade estimates of 38.49 MMT and sharply above the previous record of 37.53 MMT set in 2013. Canada’s durum wheat production was estimated at 7.135 MMT, up 12% from last year. Spring wheat production was estimated at 29.259 MMT, up 10% from last year. Late session activity was focused on spread trading, which helped support KC and Chicago while pressuring Mpls. The winter wheat exchanges also had spillover support from the corn and soybean markets.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.45, Dec CME MW support is $5.15, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.73 down 5.0 cents, March Chicago was at $5.3575 down 4.5 cents, March KC was at $5.3125 up 3.75 cent.
Wheat Weekly Comments December 5
Wheat Weekly Comments December 5
To start the week wheat opened steady to higher but slipped into the red for most of the night. Technical buying helped wheat turn positive at the start of the day session but the pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets proved to be too much for the wheat bulls to overcome. Class spreading was the main focus of traders’ attention early in the session as traders unwound long winter wheat short Mpls wheat spreads. Once the spread activity dried up, wheat fell prey to spill over pressure from the lower corn and soybeans complex. Light selling was also due to concerns that the war in Ukraine could be drawing to a close, which would result in Russian sanctions to be lifted. ABARES is not estimating Australia’s wheat production at 35.6 MMT vs 33.8 MMT previously. USDA is already at 36 MMT. Argus is estimating Russia’s 2026 wheat production at 86.5 MMT vs 88.4 MMT last year.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session steady to unchanged and traded flat for most of the session. But wheat managed to turn mixed by the end of the night session due to support from Putin’s comments about the war in Ukraine. Putin is threatening to close off access to the sea which will result in Ukraine not being able to move product. Also, Putin threatened that if Russia’s ships are going to continue to be targeted, he will start to target ships in the sea, no matter whose they are. Gains were kept in check by another lower session in Matif wheat, which is trading at new contract lows. Although the weekly Crop Progress report is done, some individual states are still reporting crop ratings. KS’s wheat crop improved by 4% last week to 66% g/e.
All of the wheat exchanges closed with small losses on Wednesday with Mpls seeing slightly greater losses than the winter wheat markets. Mpls was pressured by trade estimates ahead of tomorrow’s Stats Canada production report. The average trade estimate for all wheat production is 38.49 MMT vs. 36.62 MMT in the Sept. estimate and last year’s 35.94 MMT. This would be an all-time record if realized. South Korea bought 30,000 MT of US milling wheat while Jordan issued a tender for up to 120,000 MT of wheat. Ukraine has planted 4.74 million hectares (or 11.7 million acres) this fall and planting is 99% complete.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with Mpls wheat steady while both winter wheat exchanges started the session higher. By the end of the night session Mpls had pushed to post gains while both winter wheat exchanges faded lower. By the time the day session started, wheat had switched rolls as the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher while Mpls faded lower. Mpls was under pressure from a negative Stats Canada report, which estimated Canada’s wheat crop at an all-time record 39.95 MMT. This was sharply above trade estimates of 38.49 MMT and sharply above the previous record of 37.53 MMT set in 2013. Canada’s durum wheat production was estimated at 7.135 MMT, up 12% from last year. Spring wheat production was estimated at 29.259 MMT, up 10% from last year. Late session activity was focused on spread trading, which helped support KC and Chicago while pressuring Mpls. The winter wheat exchanges also had spillover support from the corn and soybean markets.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.45, Dec CME MW support is $5.15, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.73 down 5.0 cents, March Chicago was at $5.3575 down 4.5 cents, March KC was at $5.3125 up 3.75 cent.