After the long weekend, wheat opened the overnight session lower across the board, but managed to recover and end the night mixed with Mpls lower while Chiago was steady and KC was higher. Once the day session started, all three wheat exchanges firmed and rallied to post solid double-digit gains. Early selling was tied to poor demand and reports that Russia once again lowered their price of wheat for export. But wheat was able to shake off the early selling pressure and follow corn and soybeans higher once the day session started. As of July 25, March Mpls wheat has lost $3.085, that is enough to cause wheat to find some support and rally higher. TX released their latest winter wheat crop rating. The crop dropped another 2% to 40% g/e. Heading was revised to be at 5% vs 3% last week and 11% average.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session lower and extended session losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to lackluster demand. Light selling was tied to TX’s Crop Progress report which lowered the amount of wheat that was headed due to a mathematical error. Early estimates had TX winter wheat at 19% headed when in reality is closer to 5% headed. Which means it is not as susceptible to frost damage as expected. Losses were kept in check from lower production estimates out of the EU, which has lowered their wheat production estimate to 142.3 MMT. After March Mpls seeing over $3.00 losses since the end of July, wheat needs to see a recovery or potentially see a huge reduction in acreage in 2024.
On Thursday wheat opened the overnight session lower across the board but managed to recover and trade steady to slightly higher by the end of the night session. Early support was due to technical buying as traders tried to correct an oversold market condition. Light support was also due to a large increase in world wheat tenders as numerous countries have come out looking to buy wheat. But wheat started to fade its gains by midsession with the other grains and by the end of the session wheat had followed corn and soybeans into the red. Light selling was tied to reports that Russia’s wheat price is at its lowest level since 2020.
March Mpls support is at $6.65 while resistance is at $7.35.
For the week, March MW was at $6.30 down 13.25 cents, May Mpls was at $6.4675 down 8.75 cents, March Chicago was at $5.735 up 13.0 cents, March KC was at $5.6875 up 1.5 cents.