To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turned to trade with gains by the end of the night session. Gains were extended once the day session kicked into gear with the winter wheat months leading the charge. Early support was due to forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains, which is not what they want as it will delay harvest and likely increase disease pressure. Light support was due to another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia, as this time both went on a major offensive Sunday night. Expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving conditions timed session gains late in the session.
All of the wheat exchanges closed lower on Tuesday with Mpls seeing the largest losses. Improving crop conditions pressured wheat. Winter wheat conditions improved by 2% to 52% g/e, but spring wheat conditions improved 5% to 50% g/e (the trade only expected a 2% increase). ND improved 11% to 48% g/e, but that is sharply lower than early June 2024’s 82% g/e rating. Losses were limited by increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Early estimates have Australia’s 2025/26 wheat production at 30.6 MMT, down 10% from this past year due in part to planted acres dropping by 3%.
NASS has eliminated publishing weekly Crop Progress reports on the state level, so updated durum information was delayed. As of June 1, ND producers had 89% of the state’s durum planted vs 76% last week and 81% average. Emergence was estimated at 74% vs 56% last week and 48% average.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher into the close. Early support was due to technical buying as traders bounce wheat off support. Light support was due to weather forecasts calling for heavy rains for the Southern Plains, which will delay harvest. Reports that China’s wheat crop is seeing yields sharply below expectations added support. An escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine added support as cease fire talks have not been productive this week. Crop concerns continue to surface in the Northern Plains as cold wet weather at planting has decreased emergence and trimmed the potential for the wheat crop.
In Thursday’s session all of the wheat exchanges ended the session with small gains. Support came from forecasts of heavy rains for OK and TX over the next 7 days that will slow winter wheat harvest. Recent escalation in the Ukraine/Russia conflict added support. Spillover support came from the gains in the soybean market. The 2024/25 marketing year for wheat ended May 31. Today’s export sales report put the year’s total exports at 802 MB. But once final numbers incorporating census data are released, the total should be close to USDA’s target of 820 MB. For the 2025/26 marketing year, sales so far total 196 MB vs. 165 MB at the same time last year and are the highest sales at the start of June in 12 years. USDA’s target for the upcoming marketing year is 800 MB.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls were at $6.3525 up 9.75 cents, July Chicago was at $5.5475 up 20.75 cents, July KC was at $5.4925 up 16.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments June 6
Wheat Weekly Comments June 6
To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turned to trade with gains by the end of the night session. Gains were extended once the day session kicked into gear with the winter wheat months leading the charge. Early support was due to forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains, which is not what they want as it will delay harvest and likely increase disease pressure. Light support was due to another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia, as this time both went on a major offensive Sunday night. Expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving conditions timed session gains late in the session.
All of the wheat exchanges closed lower on Tuesday with Mpls seeing the largest losses. Improving crop conditions pressured wheat. Winter wheat conditions improved by 2% to 52% g/e, but spring wheat conditions improved 5% to 50% g/e (the trade only expected a 2% increase). ND improved 11% to 48% g/e, but that is sharply lower than early June 2024’s 82% g/e rating. Losses were limited by increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Early estimates have Australia’s 2025/26 wheat production at 30.6 MMT, down 10% from this past year due in part to planted acres dropping by 3%.
NASS has eliminated publishing weekly Crop Progress reports on the state level, so updated durum information was delayed. As of June 1, ND producers had 89% of the state’s durum planted vs 76% last week and 81% average. Emergence was estimated at 74% vs 56% last week and 48% average.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher into the close. Early support was due to technical buying as traders bounce wheat off support. Light support was due to weather forecasts calling for heavy rains for the Southern Plains, which will delay harvest. Reports that China’s wheat crop is seeing yields sharply below expectations added support. An escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine added support as cease fire talks have not been productive this week. Crop concerns continue to surface in the Northern Plains as cold wet weather at planting has decreased emergence and trimmed the potential for the wheat crop.
In Thursday’s session all of the wheat exchanges ended the session with small gains. Support came from forecasts of heavy rains for OK and TX over the next 7 days that will slow winter wheat harvest. Recent escalation in the Ukraine/Russia conflict added support. Spillover support came from the gains in the soybean market. The 2024/25 marketing year for wheat ended May 31. Today’s export sales report put the year’s total exports at 802 MB. But once final numbers incorporating census data are released, the total should be close to USDA’s target of 820 MB. For the 2025/26 marketing year, sales so far total 196 MB vs. 165 MB at the same time last year and are the highest sales at the start of June in 12 years. USDA’s target for the upcoming marketing year is 800 MB.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls were at $6.3525 up 9.75 cents, July Chicago was at $5.5475 up 20.75 cents, July KC was at $5.4925 up 16.0 cents.