Wheat Weekly Comments March 28

Wheat Weekly Comments March 28

To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls steady while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. Wheat was able to extend session gains throughout the night but faded once the day session started. Early support was due to the continued escalation in the Russian Ukraine war as both sides continue to stage aggressive attacks on each other. Gains were trimmed once the day session started due to weather forecasts calling for rain for the Southern Plains. Light support came from position squaring ahead of this afternoon’s state Crop Progress reports as well as from Thursday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate and Prospective Plantings report.

On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Chicago steady while Mpls and KC were lower. Mpls and KC extended session losses throughout the night while Chicago remained nearly unchanged. All of the wheat exchanges started at or near their highs of the session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report for most states was a summary of March while the winter wheat states were undated from last week. For the most part winter wheat conditions continued to improve, except in KS and OK. Kazakhstan’s ag minister is estimating wheat production for 2024 between 13 and 14 MMT vs 12.1 MMT last year.

Wednesday wheat traded in a choppy fashion on both sides of unchanged but found strength late in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from reports that counties in south central Kansas reported temps in the teens this morning. Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s reports was seen. The trade expects to see higher March 1 stocks but lower planted acres than last year. Ukraine expects to see lower export volumes in April and May due to Russia’s recent attacks on port facilities.

Support for May Mpls is at $6.41 while resistance is at $7.00.

The March Crop Progress reports were released this afternoon. As of March 25, the following winter wheat states were reporting the following conditions: CO: 68% g/e, up 3%, IL: 75% g/e, up 9%, KS: 53% g/e, down 2%, MT: 48%, up 3%, NE: 66% g/e, up 6%, OK: 61% g/e, down 9%, SD: 56% g/e, down 2%, TX: 51% g/e, up 5%.

For the week, May MW was at $6.45 down 16.0 cents, July Mpls was at $6.53 down 12.75 cents, May Chicago was at $5.6025 up 5.5 cents, May KC was at $5.8525 down 5.25 cents.

For the month, May MW was down 14.0 cents, July Mpls was down 9.75 cents, May Chicago was down 16.0 cents, May KC was down 2.0 cents.