To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and Chicago higher while KC was lower. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were lower. Early support was due to a lower US dollar. The lack of news out of the Black Sea on the war front pressured wheat. BAGE is reporting Argentina wheat harvest is 29% complete. Trading was thin and light as traders position themselves ahead of the holiday and month end. Wheat export demand is starting to show signs of improvement as last week’s sales estimate was above expectations and this week’s shipment estimate was at the top of expectations.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session steady to higher and extended session gains throughout the night. Gains were trimmed slightly once the day session started, but all three wheat exchanges managed to hold onto gains into the close. Early support came from technical support as traders took profits ahead of the holiday and ahead of month end. Dec futures go into delivery on Friday, which means long positions need to be rolled or liquidated by Wednesday’s close. This includes basis fixed contracts. Reports that Trump is looking at increasing the tariff on China by 10% and putting a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada has traders thinking those countries will start to cover some of their needs before Trump takes office. Gains were trimmed by Monday afternoon’s negative Crop Progress report, which showed wheat conditions improved 6%.
On Wednesday wheat opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains early. Position squaring and the evening up of positions helped to give wheat strength. But wheat lost its gains once the day sessions started with selling tied to reports of a cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Although wheat will not be impacted by this as much as corn or soybeans, but the announcement of a potential placing of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico added pressure to wheat. Mexico is larger buyer of USD wheat. Selling expanded late in the session with most of the selling hitting the front month Dec contract due to the rolling due to first notice on Friday.
Target $6.85 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.25.
As of Nov 24, winter wheat planting was estimated at 97% complete vs 94% last week and 98% average. Emergence was estimated at 89% vs 84% last week and vs 89% average. Winter wheat conditions improved 6% to 55% g/e, 33% fair, and 12% p/vp. The g/e crop rating for a few of the major states is CO: 68% up 3%, IL: 80% up 5%, KS: 55% up 6%, MT: 39% (good only) up 4%, OK:48% up 11%, and TX: 52% up 5%. Wheat has improved 17% over the past 4 weeks.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $5.725 down 13.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.3225 down 12.0 cents, Dec KC was at $5.2075 down 33.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Nov 29
Wheat Weekly Comments Nov 29
To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and Chicago higher while KC was lower. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were lower. Early support was due to a lower US dollar. The lack of news out of the Black Sea on the war front pressured wheat. BAGE is reporting Argentina wheat harvest is 29% complete. Trading was thin and light as traders position themselves ahead of the holiday and month end. Wheat export demand is starting to show signs of improvement as last week’s sales estimate was above expectations and this week’s shipment estimate was at the top of expectations.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session steady to higher and extended session gains throughout the night. Gains were trimmed slightly once the day session started, but all three wheat exchanges managed to hold onto gains into the close. Early support came from technical support as traders took profits ahead of the holiday and ahead of month end. Dec futures go into delivery on Friday, which means long positions need to be rolled or liquidated by Wednesday’s close. This includes basis fixed contracts. Reports that Trump is looking at increasing the tariff on China by 10% and putting a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada has traders thinking those countries will start to cover some of their needs before Trump takes office. Gains were trimmed by Monday afternoon’s negative Crop Progress report, which showed wheat conditions improved 6%.
On Wednesday wheat opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains early. Position squaring and the evening up of positions helped to give wheat strength. But wheat lost its gains once the day sessions started with selling tied to reports of a cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Although wheat will not be impacted by this as much as corn or soybeans, but the announcement of a potential placing of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico added pressure to wheat. Mexico is larger buyer of USD wheat. Selling expanded late in the session with most of the selling hitting the front month Dec contract due to the rolling due to first notice on Friday.
Target $6.85 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.25.
As of Nov 24, winter wheat planting was estimated at 97% complete vs 94% last week and 98% average. Emergence was estimated at 89% vs 84% last week and vs 89% average. Winter wheat conditions improved 6% to 55% g/e, 33% fair, and 12% p/vp. The g/e crop rating for a few of the major states is CO: 68% up 3%, IL: 80% up 5%, KS: 55% up 6%, MT: 39% (good only) up 4%, OK:48% up 11%, and TX: 52% up 5%. Wheat has improved 17% over the past 4 weeks.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $5.725 down 13.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.3225 down 12.0 cents, Dec KC was at $5.2075 down 33.5 cents.