Cattle Weekly Comments Oct 11

Cattle Weekly Comments Oct 11

Live cattle pushed higher in three out four sessions for the week ending Thursday while feeder cattle only saw 2 higher sessions. Live cattle were supported throughout the week by last week’s strong cash trade and expectations this week’s cash activity will remain strong as well. A higher boxed beef market added support. A higher grain complex kept feeder cattle gains in check.

Cattle opened the week steady to higher and continued to trade in a lackluster fashion throughout the day. Support came from Friday’s late in the day cash trade, which took place $1 to $2 higher than the previous week. A strong stock market and friendly jobs report all combined to help give cattle support. Gains were kept in check by technical selling as cattle are starting to look tired and most months are in an overbought condition. A higher grain complex pressured the feeder cattle.

Buying took change of both cattle contracts on Tuesday as cattle opened the session steady to lower but managed to shake off the early pressure and push higher. At first it appeared like the day was going to be a risk off session for the ag sector, but cattle found support and bounced to close with decent gains after a rough start. A strong cash trade helped give the live cattle support. Feeder cattle were supported by a lower grain complex. Reports that so far this fall OK sale barns are seeing 9% lower numbers added strength.

Selling pressure took control of both cattle contracts midweek. Cattle opened steady to higher but quickly faded to trade lower and extended session losses throughout the rest of the session. Buying spilled over from Tuesday’s strong close. But once cattle failed to hold above their 9-week high, technical selling stepped in to pull cattle lower. Feeder cattle were under pressure from a mostly firm grains complex. Live cattle losses were kept in check by a higher boxed beef market.

Buying returned to the cattle exchanges to close out the week Thursday. Cattle opened mixed then quickly faded with selling tied to a firmer grain complex and technical selling tied to a higher-than-expected core CPI estimate. Cattle have recovered about 50% of their recent setback and that has resulted in an uptick in hedging as producers put a lower in under their spring calves. Live cattle were under pressure from a slowdown in chain speed due to poor packer margins. But once the grains softened at midsession, cattle found buyers which pushed both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher. A strong cash trade gave live cattle a push after midsession. Cash bids were reported at $187. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 13,702 MT.

As of October 6, Pasture and Range Conditions were estimated at 25% g/e, 29% fair, and 46% v/vp. 1% below last week.

For the week, October live cattle are at $188.60 up $1.60. October feeder cattle closed at $249.75 up 12.5 cents.

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