To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges higher while Mpls was steady. Selling dominated the wheat exchanges the rest of the night as all three posted losses by the break. The day session brought in a new set of traders are it did not take long for wheat to start to firm and pop to the plus side. Early selling was tied to technical selling as well as from disappointment that the US has lost out on recent wheat tenders. That was evident in last week’s wheat export shipments pace, which came in at an 11-week low. Another escalation in the Middle East has traders convinced that countries needing to buy wheat will start to stock up on supplies while they can. Drought concerns remain as the US Southern Plains. Ukraine, Russia, and Australia are all experiencing hot dry conditions. In summary, nothing has changed for wheat over the past few weeks that should result in wheat to selloff, other than a lower corn and soybean market.
On Tuesday wheat opened mixed in the overnight session and extended session losses throughout the night. By the time the day session started, wheat found strength and managed to trade with small gains throughout the day. Early selling was tied to technical pressure as traders tried to clean up a slightly overbought market condition. Light selling also spilled over from the lower corn and soybean markets. Ukraine has planted 2.88 million hectares of wheat already vs 2.35 million hectares vs last year. Russian officials are saying they have 10% of their crop left to harvest and to date they have harvested 85 MMT of wheat vs USDA’s projection of 83 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chicago steady while Mpls and KC were lower. All three exchanges firmed throughout the night but once the day session started, wheat traded with small gains. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from Tuesday’s turnaround session. Reports have Algeria buying 510 to 570 TMT of wheat from Ukraine. But in the end, it continues to be hot and dry weather conditions around the world combining with the need to keep some war premium that has wheat positive.
On Thursday wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the end of the night session all three exchanges were trading with gains. Early selling was due to profit taking and technical selling due to wheat failing to cross over major resistance. But wheat seems to find strength on every break as buyers step in to keep wheat trading on the plus side. Support continues to come from the need to add war premium as each day it seems both wars get a little uglier. Support also came from reports Rosario Grain lowered their Argentina wheat production estimate 1 MMT to 19.5 MMT. Gains were kept in check from the 6 to 10 day forecast which calls for rain for the US Southern Plains, but as of now there is little confidence in the forecast.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales..
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $6.4375 up 5.25 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.99 up 9.25 cents, Dec KC was at $6.045 up 6.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 11
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 11
To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges higher while Mpls was steady. Selling dominated the wheat exchanges the rest of the night as all three posted losses by the break. The day session brought in a new set of traders are it did not take long for wheat to start to firm and pop to the plus side. Early selling was tied to technical selling as well as from disappointment that the US has lost out on recent wheat tenders. That was evident in last week’s wheat export shipments pace, which came in at an 11-week low. Another escalation in the Middle East has traders convinced that countries needing to buy wheat will start to stock up on supplies while they can. Drought concerns remain as the US Southern Plains. Ukraine, Russia, and Australia are all experiencing hot dry conditions. In summary, nothing has changed for wheat over the past few weeks that should result in wheat to selloff, other than a lower corn and soybean market.
On Tuesday wheat opened mixed in the overnight session and extended session losses throughout the night. By the time the day session started, wheat found strength and managed to trade with small gains throughout the day. Early selling was tied to technical pressure as traders tried to clean up a slightly overbought market condition. Light selling also spilled over from the lower corn and soybean markets. Ukraine has planted 2.88 million hectares of wheat already vs 2.35 million hectares vs last year. Russian officials are saying they have 10% of their crop left to harvest and to date they have harvested 85 MMT of wheat vs USDA’s projection of 83 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chicago steady while Mpls and KC were lower. All three exchanges firmed throughout the night but once the day session started, wheat traded with small gains. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from Tuesday’s turnaround session. Reports have Algeria buying 510 to 570 TMT of wheat from Ukraine. But in the end, it continues to be hot and dry weather conditions around the world combining with the need to keep some war premium that has wheat positive.
On Thursday wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the end of the night session all three exchanges were trading with gains. Early selling was due to profit taking and technical selling due to wheat failing to cross over major resistance. But wheat seems to find strength on every break as buyers step in to keep wheat trading on the plus side. Support continues to come from the need to add war premium as each day it seems both wars get a little uglier. Support also came from reports Rosario Grain lowered their Argentina wheat production estimate 1 MMT to 19.5 MMT. Gains were kept in check from the 6 to 10 day forecast which calls for rain for the US Southern Plains, but as of now there is little confidence in the forecast.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales..
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $6.4375 up 5.25 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.99 up 9.25 cents, Dec KC was at $6.045 up 6.5 cents.