To start the week soybeans opened lower overnight and traded in a very choppy fashion. The market got on the positive side early in the day session but then spent the rest of the day session falling lower and closing with losses. Pressure came from reports of good rains in most of northern Brazil over the weekend and more rains in the forecast over the next two weeks. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 8% complete vs. 11% average and 16% last year. Mato Grosso is running 14% behind average while Parana is planting 13% ahead of average. Losses were limited by dry conditions in Argentina. Harvest pressure added to the losses. Overall, there wasn’t much fresh news to move the markets. Due to Monday’s holiday, the crop progress report and NOPA crush report will not be released until tomorrow. The NOPA report for September is expected to set a new record for the month.
Soybeans opened lower overnight and stayed on the lower side for all of Tuesday’s session. The market was able to trim losses late in the day session to close with small losses. Rains in Brazil continued to pressure the market, along with CONAB’s estimate for Brazil’s new crop production at 166.1 MMT vs. 147.4 MMT last year. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 131,000 MT of soybeans to China. Harvest pressure was evident as soybean harvest progress is estimated at 67%, much faster than the 5-year average of 51%. The NOPA report was friendly. Sept. crush was estimated at 177.32 MB vs. the average trade estimate of 170.3 MB, which set a new record for the month. Stocks at 1.066 billion pounds came in lower than expected and down 6.3% from August. Last week’s export shipments were towards the higher end of the range of trade expectations.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were higher overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed lower. Pressure came from the rapidly advancing harvest. Tuesday afternoon’s crop progress report estimated harvest at 67% complete vs. 51% for the 5-year average. Rains in the forecast for Brazil and technical selling added pressure. Concerns about China’s economy also pressured the market. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 175,000 MT of soybeans to unknown.
On Thursday soybeans saw small gains at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower. The market was able to erase those losses in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from technical buying after the market dropped to its lowest levels in 7 weeks. Gains were limited by rains in the short-term forecasts for northern Brazil. A private analyst in Argentina estimates their upcoming soybean crop at 50.7 MMT vs. 48.1 MMT last year due to higher acres as soybeans look more attractive than corn. IGC increased their world soybean production estimate by 2 MMT to 421 MMT, quite a bit higher than last year’s 395 MMT.
Nov soybeans support is at $9.50 while resistance is at $10.85.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, Nov. soybeans were at $9.70 down 35.5 cents and Jan soybeans were at $9.8275 down 38.25 cents. Dec soybean meal was at $315.60 up 50 cents and Dec soybean oil was at $41.82 down $1.51.
Soybean Weekly Comments Oct 18
Soybean Weekly Comments Oct 18
To start the week soybeans opened lower overnight and traded in a very choppy fashion. The market got on the positive side early in the day session but then spent the rest of the day session falling lower and closing with losses. Pressure came from reports of good rains in most of northern Brazil over the weekend and more rains in the forecast over the next two weeks. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 8% complete vs. 11% average and 16% last year. Mato Grosso is running 14% behind average while Parana is planting 13% ahead of average. Losses were limited by dry conditions in Argentina. Harvest pressure added to the losses. Overall, there wasn’t much fresh news to move the markets. Due to Monday’s holiday, the crop progress report and NOPA crush report will not be released until tomorrow. The NOPA report for September is expected to set a new record for the month.
Soybeans opened lower overnight and stayed on the lower side for all of Tuesday’s session. The market was able to trim losses late in the day session to close with small losses. Rains in Brazil continued to pressure the market, along with CONAB’s estimate for Brazil’s new crop production at 166.1 MMT vs. 147.4 MMT last year. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 131,000 MT of soybeans to China. Harvest pressure was evident as soybean harvest progress is estimated at 67%, much faster than the 5-year average of 51%. The NOPA report was friendly. Sept. crush was estimated at 177.32 MB vs. the average trade estimate of 170.3 MB, which set a new record for the month. Stocks at 1.066 billion pounds came in lower than expected and down 6.3% from August. Last week’s export shipments were towards the higher end of the range of trade expectations.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were higher overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed lower. Pressure came from the rapidly advancing harvest. Tuesday afternoon’s crop progress report estimated harvest at 67% complete vs. 51% for the 5-year average. Rains in the forecast for Brazil and technical selling added pressure. Concerns about China’s economy also pressured the market. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 175,000 MT of soybeans to unknown.
On Thursday soybeans saw small gains at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower. The market was able to erase those losses in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from technical buying after the market dropped to its lowest levels in 7 weeks. Gains were limited by rains in the short-term forecasts for northern Brazil. A private analyst in Argentina estimates their upcoming soybean crop at 50.7 MMT vs. 48.1 MMT last year due to higher acres as soybeans look more attractive than corn. IGC increased their world soybean production estimate by 2 MMT to 421 MMT, quite a bit higher than last year’s 395 MMT.
Nov soybeans support is at $9.50 while resistance is at $10.85.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, Nov. soybeans were at $9.70 down 35.5 cents and Jan soybeans were at $9.8275 down 38.25 cents. Dec soybean meal was at $315.60 up 50 cents and Dec soybean oil was at $41.82 down $1.51.