To start the week wheat opened the overnight mixed with each exchange going its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago was lower, and KC was higher. By the end of the night session Mpls and Chicago were posting small losses while KC was lower. Wheat was looking for direction early, but with no news coming out of USDA today, wheat struggled. Fundamentals remain friendly for wheat, but technically wheat is looking tired and ready for a setback. Another escalation in the Ukraine/Russia war supported wheat early. Reports have Russian missiles striking two more civilian vessels in the Port of Odessa. Light selling pressure was due to the 6-to-10-day weather forecasts, which is calling for rain for the US Southern Plains. Ukraine officials are estimating wheat production at 21.5 MMT vs 21.2 MMT previously and vs USDA’s estimate of 22.9 MMT.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls lower while Chicago and KC started with gains. Rain has entered the forecast for Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and the US which in turn is adding pressure to wheat. Selling spilled over from a lower EU wheat complex. Losses were kept in check early by news that France officials once again lowered production estimates. Production is now estimated at 25.43 MMT vs 25.78 MMT previously. Ukraine officials are estimating winter wheat seeding progress at 75% complete. There was an export sale of wheat overnight as Mexico was in and bought 120 TMT of SRW wheat. Technically wheat has not been damaged, and so far this has only been a retracement.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session higher in all three exchanges with technical buying the main driver. Selling took hold of the winter wheat exchange in the night session with selling tied to forecasts calling for rain. All of the wheat exchanges turned higher once the day session started with support spilling over from the higher corn complex, as it pushed higher from reports of 2 large export sales estimates. Conflicting weather forecasts added support as the GFS and EU weather models are not in agreement on rain for the US Southern Plains. Gains were kept in check by the higher US dollar.
The wheat markets ended Thursday’s session on the positive side with Mpls seeing the biggest gains. Support came from dry conditions in the Southern Plains. Support also came from news that Kursk region of Russia has been declared a disaster area due to drought conditions that heavily damaged their winter wheat. Fighting between Russia and Ukraine in the region will also reduce the number of acres harvested by 160,000 hectares (roughly 400,000 acres). SovEcon reduced their Russian wheat production estimate by 1.4 MMT to 81.5 MMT due to poor yields in Siberia.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales.
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $6.1625 down 27.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.7275 down 26.25 cents, Dec KC was at $5.8075 down 23.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 18
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 18
To start the week wheat opened the overnight mixed with each exchange going its own direction. Mpls was steady, Chicago was lower, and KC was higher. By the end of the night session Mpls and Chicago were posting small losses while KC was lower. Wheat was looking for direction early, but with no news coming out of USDA today, wheat struggled. Fundamentals remain friendly for wheat, but technically wheat is looking tired and ready for a setback. Another escalation in the Ukraine/Russia war supported wheat early. Reports have Russian missiles striking two more civilian vessels in the Port of Odessa. Light selling pressure was due to the 6-to-10-day weather forecasts, which is calling for rain for the US Southern Plains. Ukraine officials are estimating wheat production at 21.5 MMT vs 21.2 MMT previously and vs USDA’s estimate of 22.9 MMT.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls lower while Chicago and KC started with gains. Rain has entered the forecast for Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and the US which in turn is adding pressure to wheat. Selling spilled over from a lower EU wheat complex. Losses were kept in check early by news that France officials once again lowered production estimates. Production is now estimated at 25.43 MMT vs 25.78 MMT previously. Ukraine officials are estimating winter wheat seeding progress at 75% complete. There was an export sale of wheat overnight as Mexico was in and bought 120 TMT of SRW wheat. Technically wheat has not been damaged, and so far this has only been a retracement.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session higher in all three exchanges with technical buying the main driver. Selling took hold of the winter wheat exchange in the night session with selling tied to forecasts calling for rain. All of the wheat exchanges turned higher once the day session started with support spilling over from the higher corn complex, as it pushed higher from reports of 2 large export sales estimates. Conflicting weather forecasts added support as the GFS and EU weather models are not in agreement on rain for the US Southern Plains. Gains were kept in check by the higher US dollar.
The wheat markets ended Thursday’s session on the positive side with Mpls seeing the biggest gains. Support came from dry conditions in the Southern Plains. Support also came from news that Kursk region of Russia has been declared a disaster area due to drought conditions that heavily damaged their winter wheat. Fighting between Russia and Ukraine in the region will also reduce the number of acres harvested by 160,000 hectares (roughly 400,000 acres). SovEcon reduced their Russian wheat production estimate by 1.4 MMT to 81.5 MMT due to poor yields in Siberia.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales.
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $6.1625 down 27.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.7275 down 26.25 cents, Dec KC was at $5.8075 down 23.75 cents.