To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC steady while Chicago was higher. It did not take long for the bears to take control of wheat. By the end of the night session all three exchanges were lower and even extended session losses once the day session got under way. Early selling was tied to reports of good weekend rains in the US southern Plains as most of KS, OK, and CO received much needed rain. This will likely result in another increase in winter wheat’s crop rating. Light selling also came from Friday’s Crop Production report which was neutral to negative wheat. Wheat basis levels are string to improve in the Northern Plains. Producers who have wheat to move should start shopping around. Technically today’s close in wheat was not good as this is the second session in a row where wheat closed below major support.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with each of the wheat exchanges opening in their own direction. By the time the day session started all three exchanges were trading on the defense and expanding losses. Selling was tied to pressure from expectation that this afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving conditions. A sharply higher US dollar added pressure. Reports that Ukraine is about to wrap up winter wheat seeding also added pressure.
On Wednesday wheat opened higher in all three exchanges but could not hold onto the early gains and faded to post losses by the end of the night session. Selling pressure expanded once the day session kicked in with pressure not only coming from a poor technical picture but also from negative fundamentals. Technically all three exchanges are trading at the bottom end of their trading ranges and appear to be looking at testing recent contract lows. Fundamentally wheat continues to see pressure from improving weather conditions in the US Southern Plains as good rains are expected to continue to help improve the winter wheat outlook. Russia officials are looking for winter wheat acreage in 2025 to drop to 15.4 million hectares, which will be the lowest acreage since 2018. Technically wheat took one more step closer to test recent contract lows.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session higher in Mpls but lower in the winter wheat exchanges. Early action was looking like the grains were trying to find support. But once the day session started, wheat extended its losses and by midsession wheat was in full meltdown. Early selling pressure was tied to another stronger session in the US dollar. Selling also spilled over from the lower corn and soybeans complex.
In world news, Strategie Grains is estimating EU soft wheat acreage to increase 5% this year. Rosario Grain decreased their wheat production estimate for Argentina 700 TMT to 18.8 MMT. Australia is reporting wheat harvest at 15 to 20% complete and is reporting better than expected yields. Production is now estimated at 35 MMT vs USDA’s projection of 32 MMT. SovEcon lowered Russia’s wheat production estimate 100 TMT to 81.4 MMT.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales.
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $5.7225 down 25.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.365 down 36.0 cents, Dec KC was at $5.40 down 24.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Nov 15
Wheat Weekly Comments Nov 15
To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC steady while Chicago was higher. It did not take long for the bears to take control of wheat. By the end of the night session all three exchanges were lower and even extended session losses once the day session got under way. Early selling was tied to reports of good weekend rains in the US southern Plains as most of KS, OK, and CO received much needed rain. This will likely result in another increase in winter wheat’s crop rating. Light selling also came from Friday’s Crop Production report which was neutral to negative wheat. Wheat basis levels are string to improve in the Northern Plains. Producers who have wheat to move should start shopping around. Technically today’s close in wheat was not good as this is the second session in a row where wheat closed below major support.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with each of the wheat exchanges opening in their own direction. By the time the day session started all three exchanges were trading on the defense and expanding losses. Selling was tied to pressure from expectation that this afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving conditions. A sharply higher US dollar added pressure. Reports that Ukraine is about to wrap up winter wheat seeding also added pressure.
On Wednesday wheat opened higher in all three exchanges but could not hold onto the early gains and faded to post losses by the end of the night session. Selling pressure expanded once the day session kicked in with pressure not only coming from a poor technical picture but also from negative fundamentals. Technically all three exchanges are trading at the bottom end of their trading ranges and appear to be looking at testing recent contract lows. Fundamentally wheat continues to see pressure from improving weather conditions in the US Southern Plains as good rains are expected to continue to help improve the winter wheat outlook. Russia officials are looking for winter wheat acreage in 2025 to drop to 15.4 million hectares, which will be the lowest acreage since 2018. Technically wheat took one more step closer to test recent contract lows.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session higher in Mpls but lower in the winter wheat exchanges. Early action was looking like the grains were trying to find support. But once the day session started, wheat extended its losses and by midsession wheat was in full meltdown. Early selling pressure was tied to another stronger session in the US dollar. Selling also spilled over from the lower corn and soybeans complex.
In world news, Strategie Grains is estimating EU soft wheat acreage to increase 5% this year. Rosario Grain decreased their wheat production estimate for Argentina 700 TMT to 18.8 MMT. Australia is reporting wheat harvest at 15 to 20% complete and is reporting better than expected yields. Production is now estimated at 35 MMT vs USDA’s projection of 32 MMT. SovEcon lowered Russia’s wheat production estimate 100 TMT to 81.4 MMT.
Target $6.65 Dec Mpls to advance sales.
Dec Mpls wheat support is at $5.95 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Dec Mpls was at $5.7225 down 25.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.365 down 36.0 cents, Dec KC was at $5.40 down 24.25 cents.