To start the week, soybeans were higher overnight and into the first part of the day session. But the market faded in the day session and closed with losses. Pressure came from reports of good rains for most of Brazil over the weekend. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. Brazil’s soybean planting has wrapped up and there are expectations for a huge crop. AgRural’s estimate is at 171.5 MMT, CONAB is at 166.2 MMT and USDA is at 169.0 MMT. NOPA Nov. crush numbers were released this morning with crush at 196.2 MB, a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 196.7 MB but a new record for the month. Stocks dropped from 1.123 billion pounds to 1.084 billion pounds. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 19% ahead of last year’s pace.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight and then added to the losses for the first part of the day session. The market was able to trim losses late in the session but still closed at new contract lows. Pressure came from South American forecasts as Brazil is expected to see good rains over the next two weeks while Argentina’s forecasts have become a little wetter. Dr Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil’s production unchanged at 170.0 MMT but lowered Argentina by 2.0 MMT to 55.0 MMT. Spillover pressure came from the steep losses in the soybean oil market. Losses were limited by export sales announcements. USDA reported sales of 187,000 MT of soybeans to Spain and 132,000 MT to unknown.
Soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the entire overnight and day session on Wednesday, closing sharply lower and now at 4-year low. Pressure came uncertainty about US policy on biofuels. The House released their continuing resolution spending plan late Tuesday. The plan did not include an extension of the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blenders credit that expires on Dec. 31 but did include permanent year-round selling of E-15. Expectations of a huge crop in South America and a weak Brazilian real added to the losses. Technical selling also added pressure. The one bright spot in the session was USDA’s report of a sale of 120,000 MT of soybean meal to Columbia.
On Thursday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but saw steady gains through the day session to close solidly higher and erase about half of Wednesday’s losses. Support came from ideas that yesterday’s 25 cent losses were overdone but traders are still concerned about how the Trump administration may deal with biofuels. Light support came from USDA’s announcement of a sale of 227,200 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. The sale was split 2/3 for 2024/25 and 1/3 for 2025/26. Bargain buying added to the gains. Gains were limited by good growing conditions in Brazil and expectations the crop could be over 170.0 MMT. Last week’s export sales were right in the middle of the range of trade expectations.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Jan soybeans support is at $9.75 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, January soybeans were at $9.745 down 13.75 cents and March soybeans were at $9.7925 down 15.75 cents. January soybean meal was at $294.50 up $8.30 and January soybean oil was at $39.48 down $3.13.
Soybean Weekly Comments Dec 20
Soybean Weekly Comments Dec 20
To start the week, soybeans were higher overnight and into the first part of the day session. But the market faded in the day session and closed with losses. Pressure came from reports of good rains for most of Brazil over the weekend. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. Brazil’s soybean planting has wrapped up and there are expectations for a huge crop. AgRural’s estimate is at 171.5 MMT, CONAB is at 166.2 MMT and USDA is at 169.0 MMT. NOPA Nov. crush numbers were released this morning with crush at 196.2 MB, a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 196.7 MB but a new record for the month. Stocks dropped from 1.123 billion pounds to 1.084 billion pounds. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 19% ahead of last year’s pace.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight and then added to the losses for the first part of the day session. The market was able to trim losses late in the session but still closed at new contract lows. Pressure came from South American forecasts as Brazil is expected to see good rains over the next two weeks while Argentina’s forecasts have become a little wetter. Dr Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil’s production unchanged at 170.0 MMT but lowered Argentina by 2.0 MMT to 55.0 MMT. Spillover pressure came from the steep losses in the soybean oil market. Losses were limited by export sales announcements. USDA reported sales of 187,000 MT of soybeans to Spain and 132,000 MT to unknown.
Soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the entire overnight and day session on Wednesday, closing sharply lower and now at 4-year low. Pressure came uncertainty about US policy on biofuels. The House released their continuing resolution spending plan late Tuesday. The plan did not include an extension of the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blenders credit that expires on Dec. 31 but did include permanent year-round selling of E-15. Expectations of a huge crop in South America and a weak Brazilian real added to the losses. Technical selling also added pressure. The one bright spot in the session was USDA’s report of a sale of 120,000 MT of soybean meal to Columbia.
On Thursday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but saw steady gains through the day session to close solidly higher and erase about half of Wednesday’s losses. Support came from ideas that yesterday’s 25 cent losses were overdone but traders are still concerned about how the Trump administration may deal with biofuels. Light support came from USDA’s announcement of a sale of 227,200 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. The sale was split 2/3 for 2024/25 and 1/3 for 2025/26. Bargain buying added to the gains. Gains were limited by good growing conditions in Brazil and expectations the crop could be over 170.0 MMT. Last week’s export sales were right in the middle of the range of trade expectations.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Jan soybeans support is at $9.75 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, January soybeans were at $9.745 down 13.75 cents and March soybeans were at $9.7925 down 15.75 cents. January soybean meal was at $294.50 up $8.30 and January soybean oil was at $39.48 down $3.13.