Soybeans started the week by opening higher overnight and then held steady with 10 cent gains. The market took another jump higher in the day session and closed sharply higher for the second session in a row and at 2-month highs. Support carried over from Friday’s bullish report numbers. USDA cut the soybean yield by 1.0 bu. to 50.7 bu. and cut harvested acres by 221,000. Both of which were much lower than the trade expected. USDA reported a sale of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 22% above last year’s pace. Soybean harvest has begun in Brazil with 0.3% of the crop harvested. China imported a record amount of soybeans in 2024 at 105.03 MMT due to low prices and the need to get product before any possible trade war when the Trump administration takes over. That was 6.5% above 2023’s total.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged but faded late in Tuesday’s day session to close with losses. Conditions are very hot and dry in Argentina, but rain is in the forecast later this week. Meanwhile, rains in the Mato Grosso state in Brazil are slowing harvest. Current pace is the slowest in 7 years. CONAB made a small increase in their estimate of Brazil’s production, going from 166.2 MMT to 166.3 MMT. USDA left their estimate unchanged at 169.0 MMT last Friday and most private estimates are in the 170 to 175 MMT range. Dr Cordonnier increased his estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 171.0 MMT and lowered Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 49.0 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small gains in the overnight and into the day session. The market turned lower late in the day session and closed with small losses. Soybeans were pressured by updated forecasts for Argentina that added rain in the 6-to-10-day forecasts. Southern Brazil, which has also been dry, received good rains in the last 24 hours. Harvest has just gotten started in Brazil and it is still expected to be a huge crop. Profit taking after 3 straight sessions of 25 cent gains added pressure.
Losses were limited by a record setting NOPA report. December crush totaled 206.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 205.5 MB and shattering the previous all-time record of 199.9 MB in October 2024. Soybean oil stocks also came in lower than expected and are at a 10-year low.
Soybeans slowly fell lower throughout all of Thursday’s session and closed sharply lower. USDA announced a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China. Rains in the forecasts for Argentina and profit taking pressured the market. Rosario Grains Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean production to be lower than their previous estimate of 53.0 to 53.5 MMT due to the current hot and dry conditions. USDA is currently at 52.0 MMT. Brazil has started soybean harvest and there are still expectations of a huge crop, which also added pressure. Last week’s soybean export sales were in the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales are running 9% above last year’s pace.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Mar soybeans support is at $9.47 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.34 up 9.25 cents while May soybeans were at $10.4475 up 6.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $297.20 down $1.10 and March soybean oil was at $45.69 up 11 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments January 17
Soybean Weekly Comments January 17
Soybeans started the week by opening higher overnight and then held steady with 10 cent gains. The market took another jump higher in the day session and closed sharply higher for the second session in a row and at 2-month highs. Support carried over from Friday’s bullish report numbers. USDA cut the soybean yield by 1.0 bu. to 50.7 bu. and cut harvested acres by 221,000. Both of which were much lower than the trade expected. USDA reported a sale of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 22% above last year’s pace. Soybean harvest has begun in Brazil with 0.3% of the crop harvested. China imported a record amount of soybeans in 2024 at 105.03 MMT due to low prices and the need to get product before any possible trade war when the Trump administration takes over. That was 6.5% above 2023’s total.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged but faded late in Tuesday’s day session to close with losses. Conditions are very hot and dry in Argentina, but rain is in the forecast later this week. Meanwhile, rains in the Mato Grosso state in Brazil are slowing harvest. Current pace is the slowest in 7 years. CONAB made a small increase in their estimate of Brazil’s production, going from 166.2 MMT to 166.3 MMT. USDA left their estimate unchanged at 169.0 MMT last Friday and most private estimates are in the 170 to 175 MMT range. Dr Cordonnier increased his estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 171.0 MMT and lowered Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 49.0 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small gains in the overnight and into the day session. The market turned lower late in the day session and closed with small losses. Soybeans were pressured by updated forecasts for Argentina that added rain in the 6-to-10-day forecasts. Southern Brazil, which has also been dry, received good rains in the last 24 hours. Harvest has just gotten started in Brazil and it is still expected to be a huge crop. Profit taking after 3 straight sessions of 25 cent gains added pressure.
Losses were limited by a record setting NOPA report. December crush totaled 206.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 205.5 MB and shattering the previous all-time record of 199.9 MB in October 2024. Soybean oil stocks also came in lower than expected and are at a 10-year low.
Soybeans slowly fell lower throughout all of Thursday’s session and closed sharply lower. USDA announced a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China. Rains in the forecasts for Argentina and profit taking pressured the market. Rosario Grains Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean production to be lower than their previous estimate of 53.0 to 53.5 MMT due to the current hot and dry conditions. USDA is currently at 52.0 MMT. Brazil has started soybean harvest and there are still expectations of a huge crop, which also added pressure. Last week’s soybean export sales were in the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales are running 9% above last year’s pace.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Mar soybeans support is at $9.47 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.34 up 9.25 cents while May soybeans were at $10.4475 up 6.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $297.20 down $1.10 and March soybean oil was at $45.69 up 11 cents.