To start the week corn fell lower throughout Monday’s session and closed with losses. Improving weather in South America pressured the market. Brazil’s 1st crop corn harvest is now at 34% complete vs. 29% last week and 33% average. 2nd crop corn planting is at 54% complete vs. 40% last week and 39% average. Argentina is expected to see good rains in the 6-to-10-day forecasts. Expectations of this week’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum increasing corn planted acres added pressure. Last week’s export shipments of 44.7 MB were in the range of trade estimates.
On Tuesday corn traded in a narrow range on either side of unchanged for the first part of the overnight session, then fell lower for the rest of the overnight and into the day session. But the market was able to trim most of the losses late in the day session to close just a couple cents lower. Technical selling pulled corn lower as the market hit 3-week lows. Dr. Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged at 123.0 MMT for Brazil and 46.0 MMT for Argentina. Ahead of this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, traders expect corn planted acres to increase about 2.9 million from last year.
In Wednesday’s session corn traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged overnight, saw the session high at the start of the day session but then faded and closed with minor losses. Rains in the forecast for Argentina and technical selling pressured corn. Last week’s ethanol production was down just 3,000 barrels per day to 1.081 million barrels per day. But stocks increased 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million. That fell just shy of the all-time record of 27.689 million barrels in April 2020. Thursday morning USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will release early unofficial numbers for the 2025/26 crop year. The average trade estimate for corn planted acres is 93.6 million vs. 90.6 million last year and new crop ending stocks at 1.910 BB vs. 1.540 BB this past year. In export news, South Korea bought 2.7 MB of feed corn, likely sourced from the US.
On Thursday corn opened the steady and managed to push higher throughout the early parts of the night session but faded those gains once the US Ag Outlook Forum released their acreage estimate. The Ag Outlook Forum is estimating 2025 corn acreage at 94 million vs expectations of 93.6 million, and vs 92 million in Oct and vs 90.6 million last year. The slight increase in acreage was not enough to send corn sharply lower, but when combined with the large increase in ethanol stocks yesterday and last week’s slower than expected export sales pace, traders got nervous about demand remaining strong. This coupled with the talk of the 25% tariffs being put in force on Mexico and Canada, along with another 10% on China, starting March 4, added pressure. Thursday marks the 6th session out of the past 7 that corn has closed lower. Technically corn has faded more than enough to clean up any overbought market conditions and has most months’ testing support. Improving weather conditions in SA and reports of planters in the field in TX added pressure.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
March corn support is at $4.50 while resistance is at $5.15.
For the week, Mar corn was at $4.535 down 37.75 cents. May corn was at $4.695 down 35.5 cents.
For the month, Mar corn was down 28.5 cents. May corn was down 23.5 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments February 28
Corn Weekly Comments February 28
To start the week corn fell lower throughout Monday’s session and closed with losses. Improving weather in South America pressured the market. Brazil’s 1st crop corn harvest is now at 34% complete vs. 29% last week and 33% average. 2nd crop corn planting is at 54% complete vs. 40% last week and 39% average. Argentina is expected to see good rains in the 6-to-10-day forecasts. Expectations of this week’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum increasing corn planted acres added pressure. Last week’s export shipments of 44.7 MB were in the range of trade estimates.
On Tuesday corn traded in a narrow range on either side of unchanged for the first part of the overnight session, then fell lower for the rest of the overnight and into the day session. But the market was able to trim most of the losses late in the day session to close just a couple cents lower. Technical selling pulled corn lower as the market hit 3-week lows. Dr. Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged at 123.0 MMT for Brazil and 46.0 MMT for Argentina. Ahead of this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, traders expect corn planted acres to increase about 2.9 million from last year.
In Wednesday’s session corn traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged overnight, saw the session high at the start of the day session but then faded and closed with minor losses. Rains in the forecast for Argentina and technical selling pressured corn. Last week’s ethanol production was down just 3,000 barrels per day to 1.081 million barrels per day. But stocks increased 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million. That fell just shy of the all-time record of 27.689 million barrels in April 2020. Thursday morning USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will release early unofficial numbers for the 2025/26 crop year. The average trade estimate for corn planted acres is 93.6 million vs. 90.6 million last year and new crop ending stocks at 1.910 BB vs. 1.540 BB this past year. In export news, South Korea bought 2.7 MB of feed corn, likely sourced from the US.
On Thursday corn opened the steady and managed to push higher throughout the early parts of the night session but faded those gains once the US Ag Outlook Forum released their acreage estimate. The Ag Outlook Forum is estimating 2025 corn acreage at 94 million vs expectations of 93.6 million, and vs 92 million in Oct and vs 90.6 million last year. The slight increase in acreage was not enough to send corn sharply lower, but when combined with the large increase in ethanol stocks yesterday and last week’s slower than expected export sales pace, traders got nervous about demand remaining strong. This coupled with the talk of the 25% tariffs being put in force on Mexico and Canada, along with another 10% on China, starting March 4, added pressure. Thursday marks the 6th session out of the past 7 that corn has closed lower. Technically corn has faded more than enough to clean up any overbought market conditions and has most months’ testing support. Improving weather conditions in SA and reports of planters in the field in TX added pressure.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
March corn support is at $4.50 while resistance is at $5.15.
For the week, Mar corn was at $4.535 down 37.75 cents. May corn was at $4.695 down 35.5 cents.
For the month, Mar corn was down 28.5 cents. May corn was down 23.5 cents.