The wheat markets all fell lower throughout Monday’s session and closed with double-digit losses. Pressure came from Russia’s state weather forecasting agency noting that recent below normal temps should not hurt winter grain crops as there was adequate snow cover in most areas. Improving conditions in the US Southern Plains added to the losses. Last week’s export shipments at 13.8 MB were in the range of trade estimates.
On Tuesday wheat traded in a narrow range for the first half of the overnight session but then turned lower and added to the losses. The market was able to trim the losses in the day session but still closed lower. Fund selling pulled the wheat markets lower as conditions improve in the winter wheat areas. Ahead of this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, traders expect all wheat planted acres to increase about 600,000 from last year. In world news, the EU’s marketing year to date soft wheat exports are down 36% from the prior year.
All of the wheat exchanges closed lower on Wednesday with Mpls seeing the largest losses. Chi and KC have now closed lower 5 out of the last 6 sessions while Mpls has closed lower 6 sessions in a row. Overall good conditions for the winter wheat crop pressured the market. Tariff concerns added pressure. Thursday morning USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will release early unofficial numbers for the 2025/26 crop year. The average trade estimate for all wheat planted acres is 46.7 million vs. 46.1 million last year and new crop ending stocks at 830 MB vs. 794 MB this past year.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session steady in Mpls and Chicago while KC started on the defense. By the time the night session was coming to a close, Mpls was posting small gains while KC was steady, and Chicago was lower. But all three wheat exchanges extended session losses late in the night session with selling tied to this morning’s Ag Outlook Forum acreage estimates. The Ag Outlook forum put 2025 wheat acreage at 47 million vs expectations of 46.7 million and vs 46 million in October and vs 46.1 million last year. A slowdown in exports this week has traders concerned importers are holding back on purchases until more is known about the tariffs. Light selling was also due to first notice for the March contract, which has resulted in heavy selling pressure in wheat. Technically MW is not in a good spot with Thursday’s close as most months are now only 10 cents off recent lows. This puts wheat undervalued vs the other grains.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $5.8225 down 17.25 cent, Mar Chicago was at $5.37 down 53.0 cents, Mar KC was at $5.5825 down 51.0 cents.
For the month, Mar Mpls was down 33.25 cent, Mar Chicago was down 22.5 cents, Mar KC was down 21.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments February 28
Wheat Weekly Comments February 28
The wheat markets all fell lower throughout Monday’s session and closed with double-digit losses. Pressure came from Russia’s state weather forecasting agency noting that recent below normal temps should not hurt winter grain crops as there was adequate snow cover in most areas. Improving conditions in the US Southern Plains added to the losses. Last week’s export shipments at 13.8 MB were in the range of trade estimates.
On Tuesday wheat traded in a narrow range for the first half of the overnight session but then turned lower and added to the losses. The market was able to trim the losses in the day session but still closed lower. Fund selling pulled the wheat markets lower as conditions improve in the winter wheat areas. Ahead of this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, traders expect all wheat planted acres to increase about 600,000 from last year. In world news, the EU’s marketing year to date soft wheat exports are down 36% from the prior year.
All of the wheat exchanges closed lower on Wednesday with Mpls seeing the largest losses. Chi and KC have now closed lower 5 out of the last 6 sessions while Mpls has closed lower 6 sessions in a row. Overall good conditions for the winter wheat crop pressured the market. Tariff concerns added pressure. Thursday morning USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will release early unofficial numbers for the 2025/26 crop year. The average trade estimate for all wheat planted acres is 46.7 million vs. 46.1 million last year and new crop ending stocks at 830 MB vs. 794 MB this past year.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session steady in Mpls and Chicago while KC started on the defense. By the time the night session was coming to a close, Mpls was posting small gains while KC was steady, and Chicago was lower. But all three wheat exchanges extended session losses late in the night session with selling tied to this morning’s Ag Outlook Forum acreage estimates. The Ag Outlook forum put 2025 wheat acreage at 47 million vs expectations of 46.7 million and vs 46 million in October and vs 46.1 million last year. A slowdown in exports this week has traders concerned importers are holding back on purchases until more is known about the tariffs. Light selling was also due to first notice for the March contract, which has resulted in heavy selling pressure in wheat. Technically MW is not in a good spot with Thursday’s close as most months are now only 10 cents off recent lows. This puts wheat undervalued vs the other grains.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.65.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $5.8225 down 17.25 cent, Mar Chicago was at $5.37 down 53.0 cents, Mar KC was at $5.5825 down 51.0 cents.
For the month, Mar Mpls was down 33.25 cent, Mar Chicago was down 22.5 cents, Mar KC was down 21.0 cents.