To start the week canola was mostly higher overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with losses. Overnight support came from the gains in the soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil markets. But tariff uncertainty pulled both the soybean complex and canola market lower in the day session. Tariffs on Canadian goods coming into the US go into effect tomorrow. In world news, ABARES increased their estimate of Australia’s canola crop by 0.3 MMT to 5.9 MMT vs. 6.1 MMT last year.
In Tuesday’s session canola opened lower and extended losses to post heavy losses by the close. Early selling spilled over from the lower US soybean complex. Light selling was also tied to tariffs. The 25% tariffs placed against Canada imports into the US will likely price Canadian canola out of the US market, which will put a dramatic decline to Canada’s canola export programs (US is the largest buyer). Once canola crossed over some major support lines, technical selling from computer generated liquidation orders accelerated the selling pressure.
On Wednesday canola gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but gave up most of the gains by the end of the overnight session. But the market climbed higher in the day session and closed with strong gains. Ideas that yesterday’s losses were overdone and optimism that the US and Canada may be able to find compromise on the tariff and border issues supported canola.
Canola spent a choppy session on the higher side but faded late in the session and closed with small gains on Thursday. Support came from tariff optimism as Mexico was given a one-month reprieve on the tariffs if the good are covered under the USMCA. (Canada got the same one-month delay after the markets closed). The higher soybean complex added to the gains. Tight supplies were also supportive, but the stronger Canadian dollar kept a lid on gains.
Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $27.00. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $19.35. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $18.70.
For the week, May canola was at $645.00 down $6.10 while July canola was at $653.90 down $4.20.
Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments March 7
Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments March 7
To start the week canola was mostly higher overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with losses. Overnight support came from the gains in the soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil markets. But tariff uncertainty pulled both the soybean complex and canola market lower in the day session. Tariffs on Canadian goods coming into the US go into effect tomorrow. In world news, ABARES increased their estimate of Australia’s canola crop by 0.3 MMT to 5.9 MMT vs. 6.1 MMT last year.
In Tuesday’s session canola opened lower and extended losses to post heavy losses by the close. Early selling spilled over from the lower US soybean complex. Light selling was also tied to tariffs. The 25% tariffs placed against Canada imports into the US will likely price Canadian canola out of the US market, which will put a dramatic decline to Canada’s canola export programs (US is the largest buyer). Once canola crossed over some major support lines, technical selling from computer generated liquidation orders accelerated the selling pressure.
On Wednesday canola gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but gave up most of the gains by the end of the overnight session. But the market climbed higher in the day session and closed with strong gains. Ideas that yesterday’s losses were overdone and optimism that the US and Canada may be able to find compromise on the tariff and border issues supported canola.
Canola spent a choppy session on the higher side but faded late in the session and closed with small gains on Thursday. Support came from tariff optimism as Mexico was given a one-month reprieve on the tariffs if the good are covered under the USMCA. (Canada got the same one-month delay after the markets closed). The higher soybean complex added to the gains. Tight supplies were also supportive, but the stronger Canadian dollar kept a lid on gains.
Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $27.00. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $19.35. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $18.70.
For the week, May canola was at $645.00 down $6.10 while July canola was at $653.90 down $4.20.