Wheat started the week by leading the grains with all 3 exchanges closing with double-digit gains. Support came from dry conditions in Russia and the US Southern Plains. In addition to the dryness, Kansas is also under red flag wind warnings. A Russian consultant estimates Russia will export 58.5 MB in March, which would be 16% lower than last month and the lowest monthly total in over a year. Technical buying added to the gains. Gains were limited by a disappointing export shipments report as last week’s shipments were below the range of trade expectations.
The wheat markets traded mostly lower in Tuesday’s choppy session and closed with losses. Kansas reported their winter wheat crop at 52% g/e, down 2% from last week while Oklahoma’s rating went up 11% to 46% g/e. Texas’s rating dropped 6% to 28% g/e. Today’s USDA report had some negative numbers for wheat. USDA increased US ending stocks by 25 MB (21 MB higher than expected). Imports were increased 10 MB and exports were cut 15 MB. The national average price dropped 5 cents to $5.50. World ending stocks were increased 2.5 MMT to 260.1 MMT (2.3 MMT higher than expected). USDA increased production in Argentina (+0.8 MMT), Australia (+2.1 MMT), Russia (+0.1 MMT) and Ukraine (+0.5 MMT).
The wheat markets ended Wednesday’s session mixed with small losses in Chi and Mpls and small gains in KC. Spillover pressure came from the lower corn and soybean markets. But weather concerns limited losses as the US Southern Plains are forecast to be hot and dry over the next two weeks. Stats Canada released their acre estimates for this spring. All wheat acres are estimated at 27.5 million, up 2.6% from last year and higher than the average trade estimate of 27.09 million. Stats Canada estimates winter wheat acres up 15.1% to 1.7 million, spring wheat acres up 2.5% to 19.4 million (in line with trade estimates), and durum acres near unchanged at 6.4 million.
In Thursday’s session the wheat markets saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session. Wheat faded a bit late in the day session but still closed solidly higher with KC seeing the biggest gains and May Mpls closing above the $6.00 mark. Support came from an impressive weekly export sales report. Last week’s sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and a 36-week high. Hot and dry forecasts for the US Southern Plains added support. Technical buying added to the gains. IKAR lowered its estimate of Russia’s wheat exports by 1.5 MMT to 41.0 MMT.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.0175 up 9.0 cents, May Chicago was at $5.57 up 5.75 cents, May KC was at $5.86 up 21.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments March 14
Wheat Weekly Comments March 14
Wheat started the week by leading the grains with all 3 exchanges closing with double-digit gains. Support came from dry conditions in Russia and the US Southern Plains. In addition to the dryness, Kansas is also under red flag wind warnings. A Russian consultant estimates Russia will export 58.5 MB in March, which would be 16% lower than last month and the lowest monthly total in over a year. Technical buying added to the gains. Gains were limited by a disappointing export shipments report as last week’s shipments were below the range of trade expectations.
The wheat markets traded mostly lower in Tuesday’s choppy session and closed with losses. Kansas reported their winter wheat crop at 52% g/e, down 2% from last week while Oklahoma’s rating went up 11% to 46% g/e. Texas’s rating dropped 6% to 28% g/e. Today’s USDA report had some negative numbers for wheat. USDA increased US ending stocks by 25 MB (21 MB higher than expected). Imports were increased 10 MB and exports were cut 15 MB. The national average price dropped 5 cents to $5.50. World ending stocks were increased 2.5 MMT to 260.1 MMT (2.3 MMT higher than expected). USDA increased production in Argentina (+0.8 MMT), Australia (+2.1 MMT), Russia (+0.1 MMT) and Ukraine (+0.5 MMT).
The wheat markets ended Wednesday’s session mixed with small losses in Chi and Mpls and small gains in KC. Spillover pressure came from the lower corn and soybean markets. But weather concerns limited losses as the US Southern Plains are forecast to be hot and dry over the next two weeks. Stats Canada released their acre estimates for this spring. All wheat acres are estimated at 27.5 million, up 2.6% from last year and higher than the average trade estimate of 27.09 million. Stats Canada estimates winter wheat acres up 15.1% to 1.7 million, spring wheat acres up 2.5% to 19.4 million (in line with trade estimates), and durum acres near unchanged at 6.4 million.
In Thursday’s session the wheat markets saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session. Wheat faded a bit late in the day session but still closed solidly higher with KC seeing the biggest gains and May Mpls closing above the $6.00 mark. Support came from an impressive weekly export sales report. Last week’s sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and a 36-week high. Hot and dry forecasts for the US Southern Plains added support. Technical buying added to the gains. IKAR lowered its estimate of Russia’s wheat exports by 1.5 MMT to 41.0 MMT.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.0175 up 9.0 cents, May Chicago was at $5.57 up 5.75 cents, May KC was at $5.86 up 21.25 cents.