Soybeans started the week by spending the overnight session on the lower side and got on the positive side early in the day session. But the market faded late in the day session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from good rain over the weekend in parts of the eastern Corn Belt. Technical selling added pressure. Traders were also waiting for direction from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour that began today. Over the last 7 years, the tour has overestimated the soybean yield 4 times and underestimated it 3 times. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade estimates.
Soybeans opened Tuesday’s session firm but slipped to trade with small losses in the overnight session. Early selling was tied to better-than-expected results from the first day of the Crop Tour as SD came in at record levels while OH was close to record. SD’s pod count came in at 1188.5 vs 1025.9 last year and vs 970.1 for the 5-year average. OH’s pod count came in at 1287.3 vs 1229.9 last year and vs 1204.8 for the 5-year average. Today’s leg of the tour will be in NE and IN. Losses were kept in check early from reports of a flash export sale as Mexico was in and bought 228,606 MT of US soybeans overnight. Losses returned due to Cordonnier’s 0.5 bus increase in his US yield projection, now estimated at 53.0 bus. Demand concerns remain the biggest concern for soybeans as we have yet to see China buy any 2025 US soybeans. The US traditional peak selling months to China are Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged and closed with small gains on Wednesday. Technical buying and spillover support from the strong gains in the soymeal market supported soybeans. Gains were limited by the Crop Tour finding record pod counts in NE yesterday and expectations of high pod counts in IA today. The tour is also in IL today and results are expected to be not as impressive. The tour was in NE and IN yesterday. NE’s pod counts were the highest in the history of the tour, going back to 2003. IN’s pod counts were a bit lower than last year but higher than the 3-year average. In export news, China imported 11.7 MMT of soybeans in July with 10.4 MMT coming from Brazil and just 421,000 MT from the US.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened steady but slipped to trade with losses in the overnight. Early selling was tied to logistical concerns. China is showing no interest in US soybeans this fall, and that has a lot of elevators in the Northern Plains nervous. The only two demand sources for soybeans in the Northern Plains are either crush or exports. With China out of the US market currently, many are concerned about over supply and wide basis levels. Soybeans were able to brush off the early selling pressure and push higher with support coming from this morning’s export sales report. The report showed old crop cancelations, but a much larger than expected pace for new crop. Early selling was tied to reports China diverted a cargo of Argentina soybean meal to Vietnam. A sharply higher soybean oil market added support. Bean oil was supported by reports EPA will soon be issuing their long-awaited ruling on small refinery exemption requests. The Pro Farmer Tour found good soybeans in IL with pod counts estimated at 1479.2 vs 1419.1 last year and vs the 5-year average of 1313.1. USDA’s Aug yield estimate came in at 65 bus vs 64 bus last year.
September soybean support is $9.65.
For the week, September soybeans were at $10.365 up 14.25 cents, while November soybeans were at $10.585 up 16.0 cents. September soybean meal was at $296.70 up $13.30 and September soybean oil was at $54.84 up $1.66.
Soybean Weekly Comments August 22
Soybean Weekly Comments August 22
Soybeans started the week by spending the overnight session on the lower side and got on the positive side early in the day session. But the market faded late in the day session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from good rain over the weekend in parts of the eastern Corn Belt. Technical selling added pressure. Traders were also waiting for direction from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour that began today. Over the last 7 years, the tour has overestimated the soybean yield 4 times and underestimated it 3 times. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade estimates.
Soybeans opened Tuesday’s session firm but slipped to trade with small losses in the overnight session. Early selling was tied to better-than-expected results from the first day of the Crop Tour as SD came in at record levels while OH was close to record. SD’s pod count came in at 1188.5 vs 1025.9 last year and vs 970.1 for the 5-year average. OH’s pod count came in at 1287.3 vs 1229.9 last year and vs 1204.8 for the 5-year average. Today’s leg of the tour will be in NE and IN. Losses were kept in check early from reports of a flash export sale as Mexico was in and bought 228,606 MT of US soybeans overnight. Losses returned due to Cordonnier’s 0.5 bus increase in his US yield projection, now estimated at 53.0 bus. Demand concerns remain the biggest concern for soybeans as we have yet to see China buy any 2025 US soybeans. The US traditional peak selling months to China are Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged and closed with small gains on Wednesday. Technical buying and spillover support from the strong gains in the soymeal market supported soybeans. Gains were limited by the Crop Tour finding record pod counts in NE yesterday and expectations of high pod counts in IA today. The tour is also in IL today and results are expected to be not as impressive. The tour was in NE and IN yesterday. NE’s pod counts were the highest in the history of the tour, going back to 2003. IN’s pod counts were a bit lower than last year but higher than the 3-year average. In export news, China imported 11.7 MMT of soybeans in July with 10.4 MMT coming from Brazil and just 421,000 MT from the US.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened steady but slipped to trade with losses in the overnight. Early selling was tied to logistical concerns. China is showing no interest in US soybeans this fall, and that has a lot of elevators in the Northern Plains nervous. The only two demand sources for soybeans in the Northern Plains are either crush or exports. With China out of the US market currently, many are concerned about over supply and wide basis levels. Soybeans were able to brush off the early selling pressure and push higher with support coming from this morning’s export sales report. The report showed old crop cancelations, but a much larger than expected pace for new crop. Early selling was tied to reports China diverted a cargo of Argentina soybean meal to Vietnam. A sharply higher soybean oil market added support. Bean oil was supported by reports EPA will soon be issuing their long-awaited ruling on small refinery exemption requests. The Pro Farmer Tour found good soybeans in IL with pod counts estimated at 1479.2 vs 1419.1 last year and vs the 5-year average of 1313.1. USDA’s Aug yield estimate came in at 65 bus vs 64 bus last year.
September soybean support is $9.65.
For the week, September soybeans were at $10.365 up 14.25 cents, while November soybeans were at $10.585 up 16.0 cents. September soybean meal was at $296.70 up $13.30 and September soybean oil was at $54.84 up $1.66.