Live cattle managed to post gains in three of the four sessions for the week ending Thursday, but that doesn’t give a good picture of just how cattle traded this week. Feeder cattle posted gains in the first half of the week, but that last half of the week saw some heavy pressure. When the dust settled on the week, both contracts were post heavy losses for the week and most traders in in a state of shock and surprised at the damage that a post on social media can create.
Cattle started the week off posting gains after seeing heavy losses on Friday. Feeders were limit down and live cattle were close to limit down on Friday on President Trump’s comments that cattle prices need to decrease and that he had a deal in the works to accomplish that task. Over the weekend, Trump suggested the US increase their import quota with Argentina. But Trump did not say anything about removing the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef coming into the US and that helped cattle bounce back today. In 2024 Argentina exported 0.94 MMT of beef while Brazil exported 2.9 MMT of beef (for comparison, the US produced 11.9 MMT of beef that year and exported 1.3 MMT).
Buying continued to help support the cattle markets on Tuesday. After opening mixed cattle traded in a mixed fashion for most of the morning. Early selling continued to come from concerns about increasing imports as it now appears that the administration is making deals with Argentina, Australia, and possibly Brazil to increase beef imports to the US. But the expectations that import amounts will be limited helped cattle recover late in the session. Once cattle started the rally, tight supplies, strong demand, and strong cash bids took over to push cattle higher. The front month Oct’s were influenced by cash more than news.
Heavy selling hit the cattle market midweek with selling tied to confirmation of more beef imports from Argentina. In what the administration is saying is needed to trim beef prices for the consumer, the US is increasing the beef import quota for Argentina from 20 TMT to 80 TMT. This news sent the live cattle market sharply lower while feeder cattle dropped to limit down levels. The post by Trump in essence said beef producers have to except that cattle prices have to come down to benefit the consumer. That the US will import beef in an attempt to lower beef prices for the consumer. The post was enough to convince weak longs to take money off the table, which resulted in a mass exodus.
The markets traded in opposite directions to close out the week ending Thursday. Live cattle managed to post gains while feeder cattle faded even lower. Cattle opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains. Early buying was tied to the realization that any increase in imports of Argentina beef still won’t make much of a dent to make up the shortage of supply. By midsession pressure had started to creep into the cattle markets pulling both lower. Live cattle were able to bounce into the close, feeder cattle weren’t. Late session selling was tied to nervous longs looking to take profits.
When looking at the US cattle numbers, US domestic production is at an 8-year low and down 1% year over year. From its peak in 2022, US beef production is down 5.7% while consumption is up 2.8%, which puts the deficient between the two (production and consumption) at their widest level in 20 years.
Reports that Mexico was coming to the US to talk about re-opening the border to Mexican cattle pushed cattle to limit down levels on Friday.
Although there will not be a COF report on Friday, early private estimates have On Feed at 98%, Placements at 91%, and Marketing at 96%.
Cash was reported trading at $239 to $240.
For the week, October Live cattle closed at $233.75 down $6.50. October Feeder Cattle closed at $354.30 down $17.65.
Cattle Weekly Comments October 24
Cattle Weekly Comments October 24
Live cattle managed to post gains in three of the four sessions for the week ending Thursday, but that doesn’t give a good picture of just how cattle traded this week. Feeder cattle posted gains in the first half of the week, but that last half of the week saw some heavy pressure. When the dust settled on the week, both contracts were post heavy losses for the week and most traders in in a state of shock and surprised at the damage that a post on social media can create.
Cattle started the week off posting gains after seeing heavy losses on Friday. Feeders were limit down and live cattle were close to limit down on Friday on President Trump’s comments that cattle prices need to decrease and that he had a deal in the works to accomplish that task. Over the weekend, Trump suggested the US increase their import quota with Argentina. But Trump did not say anything about removing the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef coming into the US and that helped cattle bounce back today. In 2024 Argentina exported 0.94 MMT of beef while Brazil exported 2.9 MMT of beef (for comparison, the US produced 11.9 MMT of beef that year and exported 1.3 MMT).
Buying continued to help support the cattle markets on Tuesday. After opening mixed cattle traded in a mixed fashion for most of the morning. Early selling continued to come from concerns about increasing imports as it now appears that the administration is making deals with Argentina, Australia, and possibly Brazil to increase beef imports to the US. But the expectations that import amounts will be limited helped cattle recover late in the session. Once cattle started the rally, tight supplies, strong demand, and strong cash bids took over to push cattle higher. The front month Oct’s were influenced by cash more than news.
Heavy selling hit the cattle market midweek with selling tied to confirmation of more beef imports from Argentina. In what the administration is saying is needed to trim beef prices for the consumer, the US is increasing the beef import quota for Argentina from 20 TMT to 80 TMT. This news sent the live cattle market sharply lower while feeder cattle dropped to limit down levels. The post by Trump in essence said beef producers have to except that cattle prices have to come down to benefit the consumer. That the US will import beef in an attempt to lower beef prices for the consumer. The post was enough to convince weak longs to take money off the table, which resulted in a mass exodus.
The markets traded in opposite directions to close out the week ending Thursday. Live cattle managed to post gains while feeder cattle faded even lower. Cattle opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains. Early buying was tied to the realization that any increase in imports of Argentina beef still won’t make much of a dent to make up the shortage of supply. By midsession pressure had started to creep into the cattle markets pulling both lower. Live cattle were able to bounce into the close, feeder cattle weren’t. Late session selling was tied to nervous longs looking to take profits.
When looking at the US cattle numbers, US domestic production is at an 8-year low and down 1% year over year. From its peak in 2022, US beef production is down 5.7% while consumption is up 2.8%, which puts the deficient between the two (production and consumption) at their widest level in 20 years.
Reports that Mexico was coming to the US to talk about re-opening the border to Mexican cattle pushed cattle to limit down levels on Friday.
Although there will not be a COF report on Friday, early private estimates have On Feed at 98%, Placements at 91%, and Marketing at 96%.
Cash was reported trading at $239 to $240.
For the week, October Live cattle closed at $233.75 down $6.50. October Feeder Cattle closed at $354.30 down $17.65.