Soybean Weekly Comments October 24

Soybean Weekly Comments October 24

To start the week soybeans opened higher overnight and then added to the gains. The market made another push higher late in the day session and closed with double-digit gains. With that, the market is back to the levels it was at a month ago. Support came from trade optimism as President Trump said he was optimistic about making a deal with China and hopes they will buy at least what they purchased last year. And with the lack of other news due to the government shutdown, the market ran with the China news. Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet in Asia on Oct. 31. Treasury Sec. Bessent and the Chinese vice-president are meeting in Malaysia this week. Analysts estimate US soybean harvest at 73% complete. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 22% complete vs. 18% average.

In Tuesday’s session soybeans were mostly higher overnight but spent most of the day session on the lower side and closed with minor losses. Soybeans saw double-digit gains yesterday on improving relations between China and the US based on comments from President Trump. However, today Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi “maybe won’t happen.” Trump later said that he still expects to be able to make a deal with China. The uncertainty surrounding the meeting pulled soybeans lower. Profit taking after soybeans hit highs not seen in a month added pressure. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market.

Soybeans ended Wednesday’s session mixed with small gains in the front months and small losses in the deferred contracts. Pressure came from uncertainly about US and Chinese relations as it’s still unknown whether Trump and Xi will actually meet on Oct. 31. In addition, tensions seem to be increasing again as the Trump administration is reportedly considering prohibiting US software and products made from US software from being imported into China. Reports that Japan intends on increasing purchases of US soybeans helped the market get back on the positive side. Brazil’s oilseed association estimates Brazil’s new crop soybean production at 178.5 MMT vs. 171.8 MMT last year.

Soybeans climbed higher throughout the session and closed with double-digit gains on Thursday. Support came from trade optimism as the White House confirmed that Presidents Trump and Xi will meet next Thursday and another group of US and Chinese officials are meeting in Malaysia this weekend. Trump also said he thinks the US and China will make a deal and downplayed the importance of China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Technical buying added to the gains. While no weekly export sales report was released due to the shutdown, traders estimate anywhere from 22 to 74 MB of soybeans were sold last week as US soybeans are now cheaper than Brazilian soybeans.

Soybeans Nov soybean support is $9.85.

For the week, November soybeans were at $10.4175 up 22.25 cents while January soybeans were at $10.6025 up 23.5 cents. December soybean meal was at $294.10 up $13.10 and December soybean oil was at $50.27 down 86 cents.

Share: