After trading to new contract lows on Friday, Chicago wheat found support and bounced off its lows. That bounce gave wheat strength in Sunday’s overnight session to open higher and extend session gains throughout the day. Technical buying and weather concerns also helped give wheat strength. Gains were kept in check by another disappointing export sales and export shipments report. The export sales report was for the week ending Dec 25 and was at a marketing year low. Mpls was the worst performer in the wheat complex as it appears wheat spreading between the classes was evident with Mpls being the short side. Expectations of buying due to the rebalancing of portfolios added support to the winter wheat exchanges.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session with each wheat going in its own direction. Mpls started lower, Chicago higher, KC steady. Light support came from weather forecasts that are calling for warm dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains over the next 10 to 14 days. But the lack of news and slow demand took charge pushing wheat into the red. Spread trading between the classes of wheat was also evident. Losses were kept in check from expectations that wheat will see some buying once the rebalancing of portfolios starts to ramp up. Expectations for next Monday’s report will show less wheat acres added support.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened with each wheat exchange starting the day going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). All three exchanges were able to shake off any early pressure and push higher during the overnight due to support from the monthly Crop Progress report. The report showed all of the HRW wheat states conditions declining. KS’s crop dropped 2% to 60% g/e, OK dropped 26% to 43% g/e, TX dropped 6% to 20% g/e, CO dropped 13% to 57% g/e, and NE dropped 14% to 40% g/e. IL improved 8% to 64% g/e. Support was also due to weather forecasts calling for above normal temps and below normal precip for the Southern Plains for the next 10 to 14 days. The EU is estimating their wheat export pace from July 1 to Jan 4 at 11.18 MMT vs 11.35 MMT last year.
Thursday was a quiet day in the wheat markets with all 3 exchanges closing within a cent or so of unchanged. Positioning ahead of Monday’s reports was seen. The average trade estimate for all winter wheat planted acres is 740,000 acres below last year at 32.4 million. The drought monitor shows 42% of the winter wheat area in a D1 level of drought or higher. Last week’s export sales were below the range of trade estimates. Wheat sales over the last four weeks averaged 7.3 MB vs. 12.1 MB in the same period last year. However, marketing year to date sales are running 18% ahead of last year’s pace.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 895 MB vs. 901 MB last month and Dec. 1 grain stocks at 1.636 BB vs. 1.573 BB last year. World ending stocks are estimated at 276.2 MMT vs. 274.9 MMT last month. The average trade estimate for all winter wheat seedings is 32.413 million acres vs. 33.153 million last year.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.675 down 3.25 cents, March Chicago was at $5.175 up 10.75 cents, March KC was at $5.3025 up 15.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments January 9
Wheat Weekly Comments January 9
After trading to new contract lows on Friday, Chicago wheat found support and bounced off its lows. That bounce gave wheat strength in Sunday’s overnight session to open higher and extend session gains throughout the day. Technical buying and weather concerns also helped give wheat strength. Gains were kept in check by another disappointing export sales and export shipments report. The export sales report was for the week ending Dec 25 and was at a marketing year low. Mpls was the worst performer in the wheat complex as it appears wheat spreading between the classes was evident with Mpls being the short side. Expectations of buying due to the rebalancing of portfolios added support to the winter wheat exchanges.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session with each wheat going in its own direction. Mpls started lower, Chicago higher, KC steady. Light support came from weather forecasts that are calling for warm dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains over the next 10 to 14 days. But the lack of news and slow demand took charge pushing wheat into the red. Spread trading between the classes of wheat was also evident. Losses were kept in check from expectations that wheat will see some buying once the rebalancing of portfolios starts to ramp up. Expectations for next Monday’s report will show less wheat acres added support.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened with each wheat exchange starting the day going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago steady, KC higher). All three exchanges were able to shake off any early pressure and push higher during the overnight due to support from the monthly Crop Progress report. The report showed all of the HRW wheat states conditions declining. KS’s crop dropped 2% to 60% g/e, OK dropped 26% to 43% g/e, TX dropped 6% to 20% g/e, CO dropped 13% to 57% g/e, and NE dropped 14% to 40% g/e. IL improved 8% to 64% g/e. Support was also due to weather forecasts calling for above normal temps and below normal precip for the Southern Plains for the next 10 to 14 days. The EU is estimating their wheat export pace from July 1 to Jan 4 at 11.18 MMT vs 11.35 MMT last year.
Thursday was a quiet day in the wheat markets with all 3 exchanges closing within a cent or so of unchanged. Positioning ahead of Monday’s reports was seen. The average trade estimate for all winter wheat planted acres is 740,000 acres below last year at 32.4 million. The drought monitor shows 42% of the winter wheat area in a D1 level of drought or higher. Last week’s export sales were below the range of trade estimates. Wheat sales over the last four weeks averaged 7.3 MB vs. 12.1 MB in the same period last year. However, marketing year to date sales are running 18% ahead of last year’s pace.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 895 MB vs. 901 MB last month and Dec. 1 grain stocks at 1.636 BB vs. 1.573 BB last year. World ending stocks are estimated at 276.2 MMT vs. 274.9 MMT last month. The average trade estimate for all winter wheat seedings is 32.413 million acres vs. 33.153 million last year.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.675 down 3.25 cents, March Chicago was at $5.175 up 10.75 cents, March KC was at $5.3025 up 15.25 cents.