Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments January 16

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments January 16

To start the week canola saw gains overnight and into the day session. But when soybeans dropped lower after the USDA reports were released, it pulled canola down with it to close lower. Losses were limited by the strong gains in the soybean oil market. Canada’s prime minister will arrive in China tomorrow for talks.

USDA’s production report put canola harvested acres at 2.3 million (down 15% from last year) and yield at 2,017 lbs, (up 12.6% from last year). Production came in at 4.65 billion pounds (down 4.4% from last year). Production was the 2nd highest on record and yield set a new record.

For sunflowers, harvested acres were 1.246 million (up 82.4% from last year), yield was 1,863 lbs. (up 11.6% from last year), and production was 2.3 billion pounds (up 103.5% from last year’s record low). The yield set a new record.

On Tuesday canola opened the overnight session with solid gains and then added to those gains in the day session to close higher. Support came from a Bloomberg report that stated China is willing to lower tariffs on Canadian canola if Canada is willing to back off on their electric vehicle tariffs. Prime Minister Carney is in China for meetings. Spillover support from the sharply higher crude oil market added to the gains. Gains were limited by the lower soybean market.

Canola was mostly higher overnight in a choppy session but lost ground in Wednesday’s day session and closed lower. Early gains spilled over from the higher soybean complex but as those gains faded, so did canola. Pressure also came from the lower Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets. Prime Minister Carney is in China and will meet with President Xi on Friday. China took that visit to note that Chinese imports from Canada dropped 10% in 2025 and it was the first decrease in imports since 2020.

In Thursday’s session canola was lower overnight but got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with solid gains. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market (up close to $2.00). News that the Trump administration will not place penalties on imported feedstocks for biofuel production was also supportive. Prime Minister Carney is in China and will meet with President Xi on Friday. Canada’s foreign minister has been in talks with her Chinese counterparts this week ahead of Friday’s meeting.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $22.20. Cash canola bids in Fargo were at $20.55. Cash bids in Velva were at $19.73.

For the week, March canola was at $639.50 up $15.80 while May canola was at $649.00 up $16.00.

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