To start the week soybeans saw small gains overnight and into the day session. When the USDA reports were released, the market dropped over 20 cents then was able to trim the losses a bit but still closed with double-digit losses. The reports were negative soybeans.
Dec. 1 grains stocks came in at 3.290 BB, 40 MB higher than expected and 190 MB higher than last Dec.
USDA left the soybean yield at 53.0 bu. (the trade was expecting a 0.3 bu. cut in yield) but increased harvested acres 124,000 to 80.437 million acres. That increased production by 9 MB to 4.262 BB but that was 33 MB more than expected. The soybean yield at 53.0 bu. was a record, but production was not as acres were 7% lower than 2024.
On the balance sheet side, USDA increased beginning stocks 9 MB, increased production 9 MB, increased crush 15 MB, and increased residual 2 MB. But exports were cut by 60 MB so ending stocks came in at 350 MB, 60 MB more than last month and 47 MB more than expected. The national average price dropped 30 cents to $10.20.
For South America, USDA increased Brazil’s production by 3.0 MMT to 178.0 MMT (1.2 MMT higher than expected) but left Argentina unchanged at 48.5 MMT (as expected). World ending stocks came in at 124.4 MMT, 2.0 MMT higher than last month and 1.0 MMT higher than expected.
On Tuesday soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the session and closed solidly lower. Losses carried over from Monday’s negative USDA reports and technical selling added pressure. There was good news for soybeans, but the market largely ignored it. USDA reported sales of 168,000 MT to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico. In addition, China sold all 1.1 MMT of reserve soybeans offered at auction today. This is in addition to the 900,000 MT of reserve beans sold in Dec. and will help make room for the US soybeans China has bought over the last 2 months. Northern Argentina is seeing rain again this week, but rain continues to miss the increasingly dry center/south of the country. Dr. Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 178.0 MMT (which now matches USDA) and Argentina at 49.0 MMT (USDA is at 48.5 MMT).
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session only to trim most of the gains late in the session to close just a couple cents higher. Technical buying was the main driver today after the market lost a total of 24 cents over the last 2 sessions. Support also came from USDA’s announcement of a sale of 334,000 MT of soybeans to China. Unofficially, most analysts believe China has now purchased about 11 MMT of US soybeans since the end of October and will hit the 12 MMT target soon. Chinese customs data puts their 2025 calendar year soybean imports at a record 111.83 MMT, up 6.5% from 2024.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight then shot higher early in the day session and held most of those gains into the close. Support came from the Trump administration’s announcement that they plan to finalize 2026 biofuel blending targets by early March and will likely keep them close to the initial proposal amounts. The numbers look to be friendliest for renewable diesel. Export sales news was also supportive. USDA reported daily sales of 204,000 MT to China, 110,000 MT to unknown, and another 435,000 MT to unknown (split between this year and next). Last week’s export sales at 75.8 MB (2.062 MMT) were higher than the range of trade expectations and the third highest of the marketing year.
The Dec. NOPA report also came out Thursday morning. Dec. crush was 224.991 MB, slightly higher than the average trade estimate and a new record for the month. It was also the second highest total for any month. Soybean oil stocks were a little lower than expected but the highest in 19 months.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.5775 down 4.75 cents while May soybeans were at $10.6875 down 5.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $290.00 down $13.70 and March soybean oil was at $52.61 up $2.92.
Soybean Weekly Comments January 16
Soybean Weekly Comments January 16
To start the week soybeans saw small gains overnight and into the day session. When the USDA reports were released, the market dropped over 20 cents then was able to trim the losses a bit but still closed with double-digit losses. The reports were negative soybeans.
Dec. 1 grains stocks came in at 3.290 BB, 40 MB higher than expected and 190 MB higher than last Dec.
USDA left the soybean yield at 53.0 bu. (the trade was expecting a 0.3 bu. cut in yield) but increased harvested acres 124,000 to 80.437 million acres. That increased production by 9 MB to 4.262 BB but that was 33 MB more than expected. The soybean yield at 53.0 bu. was a record, but production was not as acres were 7% lower than 2024.
On the balance sheet side, USDA increased beginning stocks 9 MB, increased production 9 MB, increased crush 15 MB, and increased residual 2 MB. But exports were cut by 60 MB so ending stocks came in at 350 MB, 60 MB more than last month and 47 MB more than expected. The national average price dropped 30 cents to $10.20.
For South America, USDA increased Brazil’s production by 3.0 MMT to 178.0 MMT (1.2 MMT higher than expected) but left Argentina unchanged at 48.5 MMT (as expected). World ending stocks came in at 124.4 MMT, 2.0 MMT higher than last month and 1.0 MMT higher than expected.
On Tuesday soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the session and closed solidly lower. Losses carried over from Monday’s negative USDA reports and technical selling added pressure. There was good news for soybeans, but the market largely ignored it. USDA reported sales of 168,000 MT to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico. In addition, China sold all 1.1 MMT of reserve soybeans offered at auction today. This is in addition to the 900,000 MT of reserve beans sold in Dec. and will help make room for the US soybeans China has bought over the last 2 months. Northern Argentina is seeing rain again this week, but rain continues to miss the increasingly dry center/south of the country. Dr. Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 178.0 MMT (which now matches USDA) and Argentina at 49.0 MMT (USDA is at 48.5 MMT).
In Wednesday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session only to trim most of the gains late in the session to close just a couple cents higher. Technical buying was the main driver today after the market lost a total of 24 cents over the last 2 sessions. Support also came from USDA’s announcement of a sale of 334,000 MT of soybeans to China. Unofficially, most analysts believe China has now purchased about 11 MMT of US soybeans since the end of October and will hit the 12 MMT target soon. Chinese customs data puts their 2025 calendar year soybean imports at a record 111.83 MMT, up 6.5% from 2024.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight then shot higher early in the day session and held most of those gains into the close. Support came from the Trump administration’s announcement that they plan to finalize 2026 biofuel blending targets by early March and will likely keep them close to the initial proposal amounts. The numbers look to be friendliest for renewable diesel. Export sales news was also supportive. USDA reported daily sales of 204,000 MT to China, 110,000 MT to unknown, and another 435,000 MT to unknown (split between this year and next). Last week’s export sales at 75.8 MB (2.062 MMT) were higher than the range of trade expectations and the third highest of the marketing year.
The Dec. NOPA report also came out Thursday morning. Dec. crush was 224.991 MB, slightly higher than the average trade estimate and a new record for the month. It was also the second highest total for any month. Soybean oil stocks were a little lower than expected but the highest in 19 months.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.5775 down 4.75 cents while May soybeans were at $10.6875 down 5.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $290.00 down $13.70 and March soybean oil was at $52.61 up $2.92.