Corn started Monday’s session lower but like wheat, managed to brush off the early selling pressure and push to post gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Expectations for a neutral to friendly Final Crop Production estimate from USDA helped corn firm early in the session. Additional support was due to two separate flash export sales for corn. South Korea bought 204 TMT of US corn while an unknown destination bought 310 TMT of US corn overnight. But that would be the last of the good news for corn.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put Dec 1 corn stocks at 13.282 BB, 320 MB above expectations and 1.21 BB above last year. According to the report, there is 8.699 BB of corn stored on farms while 4.583 BB is stored off farm.
Old crop corn’s supply and demand table saw a 12 MB drop in feed demand and an 8 MB drop in food demand. The net result was a 19 MB increase in old crop stocks, now estimated at 1.55 BB.
New crop corn’s supply and demand table saw a lot of adjustments. USDA increased planted acreage 100,000 acres, increased harvested acreage 1.2 million AND increased yield 0.5 bu. to 186.5 bu. (2.5 bu. above expectations). That put production at 17.021 BB, up 269 MB above last month and 469 MB above expectations. On the demand side, USDA increased feed demand 100 MB and decreased food demand 10 MB. The net result was a 198 MB increase in ending stocks, now estimated at 2.227 BB, 247 MB above expectations. The national average price increased 10 cents to $4.10.
On the world stage, stocks were estimated at 290.0 MMT, up 11.0 MMT above expectations and 11.7 MMT above last month. The increase was due to the increase in US and China (6.2 MMT) production.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened with gains but slipped to trade lower throughout most of the overnight session. Early support came from bargain hunting but once those buyers wrapped up their buying all corn was left with was a round of margin call selling (due to Monday’s bearish report). The report has brought up a bunch of interesting questions, like why the national average price increased when production and stocks took such a jump. Also, where did the added acreage come from? That one is not so hard to answer as it came from acreage that was intended to be chopped but wasn’t due to the above average yield. Light support was also due to news that the administration is finally starting to hold meetings on 45Z with stakeholders in the biofuel industry. Strong demand continues to help support corn. It is likely corn will continue to trade in a tight trading range, only now that trading range will be at a lower level, until some other news breaks the range.
Corn opened higher and extended session gains early on Wednesday. Early support was due to technical buying as traders tried to clean up an oversold market condition. Light support was due to reports of increased export interest in US corn, especially after the early week selloff. There was a flash export sale of 136 TMT of US corn reportedly sold to South Korea overnight. Gains were kept in check by concerns about tariffs, the Supreme Court decision and if the administration follows through with the 25% tariff on all countries that do business with Iran.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was bullish corn. Last week’s production was estimated at 1.196 million barrels, 98,000 barrels above the previous week and sharply above the previous weekly record. Stocks were estimated at 24.47 million, up 821,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand increased.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and extended session gains early. Early support came from two separate flash export sales estimates. Japan was in and bought 260 TMT of US corn while an unknown destination bought 500.3 TMT of US corn. Last week’s export sales pace was also robust, coming in above expectations. News that the administration is signaling a large increase in the 2026 renewable volume obligation added support. CONAB is estimating Brazil’s corn production at 138.87 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Rosario Grain increased their Argentina production estimate 1 MMT to 62 MMT. Corn faded its gains late in the session with most of the selling tied to spill over pressure from the lower wheat complex.
March corn support is $4.10.
For the week, March corn was at $4.2475 down 21.0 cents. May corn was at $4.32 down 21.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments January 16
Corn Weekly Comments January 16
Corn started Monday’s session lower but like wheat, managed to brush off the early selling pressure and push to post gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Expectations for a neutral to friendly Final Crop Production estimate from USDA helped corn firm early in the session. Additional support was due to two separate flash export sales for corn. South Korea bought 204 TMT of US corn while an unknown destination bought 310 TMT of US corn overnight. But that would be the last of the good news for corn.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put Dec 1 corn stocks at 13.282 BB, 320 MB above expectations and 1.21 BB above last year. According to the report, there is 8.699 BB of corn stored on farms while 4.583 BB is stored off farm.
Old crop corn’s supply and demand table saw a 12 MB drop in feed demand and an 8 MB drop in food demand. The net result was a 19 MB increase in old crop stocks, now estimated at 1.55 BB.
New crop corn’s supply and demand table saw a lot of adjustments. USDA increased planted acreage 100,000 acres, increased harvested acreage 1.2 million AND increased yield 0.5 bu. to 186.5 bu. (2.5 bu. above expectations). That put production at 17.021 BB, up 269 MB above last month and 469 MB above expectations. On the demand side, USDA increased feed demand 100 MB and decreased food demand 10 MB. The net result was a 198 MB increase in ending stocks, now estimated at 2.227 BB, 247 MB above expectations. The national average price increased 10 cents to $4.10.
On the world stage, stocks were estimated at 290.0 MMT, up 11.0 MMT above expectations and 11.7 MMT above last month. The increase was due to the increase in US and China (6.2 MMT) production.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened with gains but slipped to trade lower throughout most of the overnight session. Early support came from bargain hunting but once those buyers wrapped up their buying all corn was left with was a round of margin call selling (due to Monday’s bearish report). The report has brought up a bunch of interesting questions, like why the national average price increased when production and stocks took such a jump. Also, where did the added acreage come from? That one is not so hard to answer as it came from acreage that was intended to be chopped but wasn’t due to the above average yield. Light support was also due to news that the administration is finally starting to hold meetings on 45Z with stakeholders in the biofuel industry. Strong demand continues to help support corn. It is likely corn will continue to trade in a tight trading range, only now that trading range will be at a lower level, until some other news breaks the range.
Corn opened higher and extended session gains early on Wednesday. Early support was due to technical buying as traders tried to clean up an oversold market condition. Light support was due to reports of increased export interest in US corn, especially after the early week selloff. There was a flash export sale of 136 TMT of US corn reportedly sold to South Korea overnight. Gains were kept in check by concerns about tariffs, the Supreme Court decision and if the administration follows through with the 25% tariff on all countries that do business with Iran.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was bullish corn. Last week’s production was estimated at 1.196 million barrels, 98,000 barrels above the previous week and sharply above the previous weekly record. Stocks were estimated at 24.47 million, up 821,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand increased.
Corn opened Thursday’s session higher and extended session gains early. Early support came from two separate flash export sales estimates. Japan was in and bought 260 TMT of US corn while an unknown destination bought 500.3 TMT of US corn. Last week’s export sales pace was also robust, coming in above expectations. News that the administration is signaling a large increase in the 2026 renewable volume obligation added support. CONAB is estimating Brazil’s corn production at 138.87 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Rosario Grain increased their Argentina production estimate 1 MMT to 62 MMT. Corn faded its gains late in the session with most of the selling tied to spill over pressure from the lower wheat complex.
March corn support is $4.10.
For the week, March corn was at $4.2475 down 21.0 cents. May corn was at $4.32 down 21.75 cents.