To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and spent most of a choppy session on the lower side and closed with small losses. Soybeans briefly turned positive on USDA’s report of a sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans to China. That was the first daily reported sale since Jan. 22. But the market quickly faded after that. Harvest pressure came from the advancing harvest in Brazil now at 13% complete vs. 17% average. Recent production estimates have topped 180 MMT. USDA is currently at 178 MMT and traders expect USDA to increase that in Tuesday’s report. Losses were limited by spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Two-thirds of last week’s shipments went to China.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but gained ground throughout the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from rumors of China buying US soybeans. Support also came from optimism that the new trade deal between the US and India will result in India increasing their purchases of US soybean oil.
Tuesday’s USDA report was a non-event for soybeans. No US numbers were changed. Ending stocks were left at 350 MB, in line with trade estimates. The national average price was left unchanged at $10.20. USDA increased Brazil’s soybean production by 2.0 MMT to 180.0 MMT which was as expected as most recent private estimates have been over 180.0 MMT. Argentina’s production was left unchanged at 48.5 MMT. USDA increased world ending stocks by 1.1 MMT to 125.5 MMT, which was also in line with trade estimates.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were mostly lower overnight, saw the session lows early in the day session but then the market turned around and soybeans were able to close with small gains. Technical buying and trade optimism supported soybeans late in the session. Heavy rains in the Mato Grosso state of Brazil added support on expectations the rains will lower the quality of the soybean crop. Soybean oil saw contract highs yesterday, due in part to the trade deal between the US and India (still unsigned) that includes India allowing some duty-free soybean oil imports from the US. That resulted in soybean prices in India dropping 10% and unhappy farmers are organizing nationwide protests this week. Farmers are a strong voting bloc in India and do have some influence over government policy.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains to close with double-digit gains. Soybeans have closed higher in 7 out of the last 8 sessions. Optimism that China will purchase another 8 MMT of US soybeans supported soybeans. Chinese media reported China and the US are looking to extend their trade truce for 1 year. USDA’s report of a sale of 108,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt added support. The market focused on the possibility of more Chinese buying and ignored last week’s disappointing export sales report that showed sales at a marketing year low. CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s production from 176.1 MMT to 178.0 MMT while Rosario Grains Exchange raised their estimate of Argentina’s production from 47.0 to 48.0 MMT.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.34 up 17.75 cents while May soybeans were at $11.495 up 19.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $309.20 up $5.60 and March soybean oil was at $57.08 up $1.75.
Soybean Weekly Comments February 13
Soybean Weekly Comments February 13
To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and spent most of a choppy session on the lower side and closed with small losses. Soybeans briefly turned positive on USDA’s report of a sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans to China. That was the first daily reported sale since Jan. 22. But the market quickly faded after that. Harvest pressure came from the advancing harvest in Brazil now at 13% complete vs. 17% average. Recent production estimates have topped 180 MMT. USDA is currently at 178 MMT and traders expect USDA to increase that in Tuesday’s report. Losses were limited by spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Two-thirds of last week’s shipments went to China.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but gained ground throughout the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from rumors of China buying US soybeans. Support also came from optimism that the new trade deal between the US and India will result in India increasing their purchases of US soybean oil.
Tuesday’s USDA report was a non-event for soybeans. No US numbers were changed. Ending stocks were left at 350 MB, in line with trade estimates. The national average price was left unchanged at $10.20. USDA increased Brazil’s soybean production by 2.0 MMT to 180.0 MMT which was as expected as most recent private estimates have been over 180.0 MMT. Argentina’s production was left unchanged at 48.5 MMT. USDA increased world ending stocks by 1.1 MMT to 125.5 MMT, which was also in line with trade estimates.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were mostly lower overnight, saw the session lows early in the day session but then the market turned around and soybeans were able to close with small gains. Technical buying and trade optimism supported soybeans late in the session. Heavy rains in the Mato Grosso state of Brazil added support on expectations the rains will lower the quality of the soybean crop. Soybean oil saw contract highs yesterday, due in part to the trade deal between the US and India (still unsigned) that includes India allowing some duty-free soybean oil imports from the US. That resulted in soybean prices in India dropping 10% and unhappy farmers are organizing nationwide protests this week. Farmers are a strong voting bloc in India and do have some influence over government policy.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains to close with double-digit gains. Soybeans have closed higher in 7 out of the last 8 sessions. Optimism that China will purchase another 8 MMT of US soybeans supported soybeans. Chinese media reported China and the US are looking to extend their trade truce for 1 year. USDA’s report of a sale of 108,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt added support. The market focused on the possibility of more Chinese buying and ignored last week’s disappointing export sales report that showed sales at a marketing year low. CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s production from 176.1 MMT to 178.0 MMT while Rosario Grains Exchange raised their estimate of Argentina’s production from 47.0 to 48.0 MMT.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.34 up 17.75 cents while May soybeans were at $11.495 up 19.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $309.20 up $5.60 and March soybean oil was at $57.08 up $1.75.