Corn Weekly Comments March 13

Corn Weekly Comments March 13

Corn gapped higher at the start of the week and then proceeded to added to the gains. The market drifted lower in the day session and closed with losses. Overnight support spilled over from the sharply higher crude oil market, but as crude trimmed gains in the day session, so did corn. Profit taking pressured corn in the day session. As of Friday, Brazil’s 1st crop corn harvest is 41% complete vs. 43% average and 2nd crop planting is at 68% complete vs. 69% average.

Selling pressure continued Tuesday as corn gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the lower side overnight. But the market was able to trim losses late in the day session and closed with small losses. Spillover pressure came from the losses in the crude oil markets but technical buying late in the session trimmed the losses.

In today’s USDA report, US ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.127 BB (that was 29 MB lower than expected). No balance sheet changes were made, and the national average price was left unchanged at $4.10.

World numbers were a bit negative. USDA increased Brazil’s production by 1.0 MMT to 132.0 MMT but decreased Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 52.0 MMT. Ukraine’s production was increased 1.7 MMT to 30.7 MMT. World ending stocks came in at 292.8 MMT, 3.8 MMT higher than last month and 3.2 MMT higher than expected.

Buying returned to the corn market midweek. After seeing small losses early in the overnight session, corn turning higher and then added to the gains in the day session to close with strong gains. The higher crude oil market supported corn. Ideas that high fertilizer prices will switch acres from corn to soybeans added support. Last week’s ethanol production increased 31,000 barrels per day to 1.126 million barrels per day. That was an 8-week high. Stocks dropped 757,000 barrels to 25.6 million. Gasoline demand was sharply higher than the prior week but in line with the same week last year.

Keeping with the trend of the week, corn gapped higher on the opening bell and never looked back. Early support continues to come from the increased tensions from the Iran war. Light support is coming from continued reports of planting delays in Brazil as rain has delayed the harvesting of soybeans and pushed corn planting back enough that over 50% of the second corn crop will be planted after the optimum planting date. Spill over support came from another strong session in the energy sector as well as from a strong soybean complex. Expectations that the recent surge in fertilizer price is resulting in producers backing away from corn added support.

May corn support is $4.35.

For the week, May corn was at $4.6725 up 6.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.915 up 6.5 cents.

 

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