To start the week soybeans opened lower but like the other grains, reversed direction and traded with small gains up until about 6 AM. Overnight support spilled over from the other outside markets, especially crude oil, and soybean oil. Bessent was quoted over the weekend saying that the US is willing to go through short term economic pain to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. But it appears that Iran might be ready to negotiate a truce, according to Trump. That was enough to have Trump order the US military to halt attacks on Iran for the next 5 days. This sent crude and dollar lower and stock market higher.
Weather in Brazil has turned concerning once again as rain is expected to cause another delay in harvest activity which will result in further quality concerns. Reports that Brazil and China have worked out their phytosanitary issues added pressure to soybeans as shipments should pick back up without penalty. In export news, Mexico was in and bought 161 TMT of US soybeans. As of March 20, Brazil was reporting harvest activity at 64% complete vs 55% last week and vs 71% average.
On Tuesday soybeans opened the session with gains but faded to trade lower by the end of the night session. Selling pressure picked up a little momentum during the day session, resulting in soybeans ending the session lower. Early support spilled over from the other grains and higher crude oil market. Gains were trimmed early due to news that China had worked out their phytosanitary issues with Brazil soybean imports. This should help to get the vessels moving once again.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans opened lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turn higher early in the overnight session. Early selling was tied to rumors of a potential end to the Iran war. But soybeans brushed off the war news and found support in reports that the administration and EPA will be releasing friendly numbers for the biofuels industry on Friday. Weather forecasts calling for rain in Brazil added support. Rain will continue to delay harvest activity and lower the quality of the soybeans being exported, which could once again slow down boats going to China. The expectation of higher RVO numbers for biofuels has traders convinced more plants are going to be needed. Late session support came from reports that Trump will be going to China May 14 through the 15.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session and closed with small gains. Support spilled over from the sharply higher soybean oil market on positioning ahead of tomorrow’s Celebration of Ag at the White House. Traders expect the EPA blending requirements to be announced at the event and will be friendly to the biofuel industry. Support also came from last week’s export sales report. Sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and the highest in 5 weeks. Brazilian firm Agroconsult increased their estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.6 MMT to a record 184.7 MMT.
Ahead of Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, the average trade estimate for March 1 soybean stocks is 2.063 BB vs. 1.911 BB last March. Ahead of Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings Report, the average trade estimate for soybean acres is 85.549 million vs. 81.215 million last year and 85.0 million from the Feb. Ag Outlook Forum.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.5925 down 2.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.44 up 3.0 cents. May soybean meal was at $314.70 down $13.30 and May soybean oil was at $67.41 up $1.90.
Soybean Weekly Comments March 27
Soybean Weekly Comments March 27
To start the week soybeans opened lower but like the other grains, reversed direction and traded with small gains up until about 6 AM. Overnight support spilled over from the other outside markets, especially crude oil, and soybean oil. Bessent was quoted over the weekend saying that the US is willing to go through short term economic pain to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. But it appears that Iran might be ready to negotiate a truce, according to Trump. That was enough to have Trump order the US military to halt attacks on Iran for the next 5 days. This sent crude and dollar lower and stock market higher.
Weather in Brazil has turned concerning once again as rain is expected to cause another delay in harvest activity which will result in further quality concerns. Reports that Brazil and China have worked out their phytosanitary issues added pressure to soybeans as shipments should pick back up without penalty. In export news, Mexico was in and bought 161 TMT of US soybeans. As of March 20, Brazil was reporting harvest activity at 64% complete vs 55% last week and vs 71% average.
On Tuesday soybeans opened the session with gains but faded to trade lower by the end of the night session. Selling pressure picked up a little momentum during the day session, resulting in soybeans ending the session lower. Early support spilled over from the other grains and higher crude oil market. Gains were trimmed early due to news that China had worked out their phytosanitary issues with Brazil soybean imports. This should help to get the vessels moving once again.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans opened lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and turn higher early in the overnight session. Early selling was tied to rumors of a potential end to the Iran war. But soybeans brushed off the war news and found support in reports that the administration and EPA will be releasing friendly numbers for the biofuels industry on Friday. Weather forecasts calling for rain in Brazil added support. Rain will continue to delay harvest activity and lower the quality of the soybeans being exported, which could once again slow down boats going to China. The expectation of higher RVO numbers for biofuels has traders convinced more plants are going to be needed. Late session support came from reports that Trump will be going to China May 14 through the 15.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session and closed with small gains. Support spilled over from the sharply higher soybean oil market on positioning ahead of tomorrow’s Celebration of Ag at the White House. Traders expect the EPA blending requirements to be announced at the event and will be friendly to the biofuel industry. Support also came from last week’s export sales report. Sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and the highest in 5 weeks. Brazilian firm Agroconsult increased their estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.6 MMT to a record 184.7 MMT.
Ahead of Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, the average trade estimate for March 1 soybean stocks is 2.063 BB vs. 1.911 BB last March. Ahead of Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings Report, the average trade estimate for soybean acres is 85.549 million vs. 81.215 million last year and 85.0 million from the Feb. Ag Outlook Forum.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.5925 down 2.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.44 up 3.0 cents. May soybean meal was at $314.70 down $13.30 and May soybean oil was at $67.41 up $1.90.