The wheat markets ended Monday’s session mixed with small gains in Mpls and Chi and losses in KC. Mpls was supported by expectations that spring wheat planted acres will be lower than last year in Tuesday’s report. KC was pressured by updated weather forecasts showing good rains for most of TX, OK, and KS later this week. Nearly all of the Midwest will also see rain. In world news, Russia increased their estimate of March wheat exports from 4.2 MMT to 4.5 MMT. If realized this would be the third highest exports for March in 15 years.
In Tuesday’s session the wheat markets all closed with gains on a friendly report. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely a non-event. March 1 stocks came in at 1.300 BB, 63 MB higher than last March and just 5 MB higher than expected. The Prospective Plantings report was friendly wheat. The report put all wheat acres at 43.775 million, down 1.553 million from last year and 1.011 million lower than expected. If realized this would be the lowest all wheat acres since records began in 1919.
Spring wheat acres were estimated at 9.415 million, down 235,000 acres from last year and 427,000 acres lower than expected. If realized, this would be the lowest spring wheat acres since 1970. Spring wheat acres have declined 7 out of the last 8 years since the recent peak of 13.2 million in 2018. ND spring wheat acres are expected to be down 8% from last year and MN acres are expected to be 10% lower. Durum acres came in at 1.950 million, down 235,000 acres from last year and 320,000 acres lower than expected. ND durum acres are expected to be down 13% from last year.
The wheat markets drifted lower throughout Wednesday’s session and closed sharply lower. In addition to traders leaving the commodities for the outside markets, wheat was pressured by forecasts for good rains for the Southern Plains over the next 2 weeks with the heaviest rains falling in OK, eastern KS, and western MO. Profit taking and the losses in the crude oil market added to the losses. In world news, Jordan bought 60,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat yesterday while Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.4675 down 1.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9825 down 6.75 cents, May KC was at $6.1575 down 17.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls MIAX was up 45.75 cents, May Chicago was up 24.75 cents and May KC was up 55.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 2
Wheat Weekly Comments April 2
The wheat markets ended Monday’s session mixed with small gains in Mpls and Chi and losses in KC. Mpls was supported by expectations that spring wheat planted acres will be lower than last year in Tuesday’s report. KC was pressured by updated weather forecasts showing good rains for most of TX, OK, and KS later this week. Nearly all of the Midwest will also see rain. In world news, Russia increased their estimate of March wheat exports from 4.2 MMT to 4.5 MMT. If realized this would be the third highest exports for March in 15 years.
In Tuesday’s session the wheat markets all closed with gains on a friendly report. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely a non-event. March 1 stocks came in at 1.300 BB, 63 MB higher than last March and just 5 MB higher than expected. The Prospective Plantings report was friendly wheat. The report put all wheat acres at 43.775 million, down 1.553 million from last year and 1.011 million lower than expected. If realized this would be the lowest all wheat acres since records began in 1919.
Spring wheat acres were estimated at 9.415 million, down 235,000 acres from last year and 427,000 acres lower than expected. If realized, this would be the lowest spring wheat acres since 1970. Spring wheat acres have declined 7 out of the last 8 years since the recent peak of 13.2 million in 2018. ND spring wheat acres are expected to be down 8% from last year and MN acres are expected to be 10% lower. Durum acres came in at 1.950 million, down 235,000 acres from last year and 320,000 acres lower than expected. ND durum acres are expected to be down 13% from last year.
The wheat markets drifted lower throughout Wednesday’s session and closed sharply lower. In addition to traders leaving the commodities for the outside markets, wheat was pressured by forecasts for good rains for the Southern Plains over the next 2 weeks with the heaviest rains falling in OK, eastern KS, and western MO. Profit taking and the losses in the crude oil market added to the losses. In world news, Jordan bought 60,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat yesterday while Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.4675 down 1.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9825 down 6.75 cents, May KC was at $6.1575 down 17.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls MIAX was up 45.75 cents, May Chicago was up 24.75 cents and May KC was up 55.0 cents.