To start the week the wheat markets gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Overnight spillover support came from the sharply higher crude oil market. Additional support came from news that weekend rains missed the western 1/3 of the Southern Plains. That area has missed out on previous rains and this week’s forecast shows that area will be missed again. In world news, a Ukrainian ag consulting group estimates Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat production at 19.9 MMT vs. 23.2 MMT last year. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of trade expectations and a 13-week low.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the close of the night session. Early selling was tied to concerns about the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz. But wheat was able to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher with support coming from Monday’s friendly Crop Progress report. Additional support was due to weather forecasts calling for little to no rain for the winter wheat region for the next 10 days.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to higher with early support coming from talk that the war with Iran could be coming to an end soon. But wheat faded its gains, turning lower before the end of the night session due to an updated long term weather forecast calling for rain (8 to 15 day). Light selling was tied to reports that USDA had to decrease Monday’s export inspections estimate as the number released was incorrect. Wheat trimmed session losses late and even managed to pop into the black due to spill over support from the higher corn and soybean market.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session lower with Mpls gapping lower to start. It did not take long for wheat to brush off the selling pressure and turn higher. Weather is the leading supporting factor for wheat as the Northern Plains is forecast to see cold wintery weather over the weekend while hot and dry conditions remain in the major winter wheat region. Expectations for Monday’s Crop Progress are to see little to no progress in spring wheat planting and lower ratings for winter wheat. Technically wheat is testing the upper end of its trading ranges.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.5325 up 41.75 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9125 up 20.25 cents, May KC was at $6.3675 up 46.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 17
Wheat Weekly Comments April 17
To start the week the wheat markets gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Overnight spillover support came from the sharply higher crude oil market. Additional support came from news that weekend rains missed the western 1/3 of the Southern Plains. That area has missed out on previous rains and this week’s forecast shows that area will be missed again. In world news, a Ukrainian ag consulting group estimates Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat production at 19.9 MMT vs. 23.2 MMT last year. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of trade expectations and a 13-week low.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the close of the night session. Early selling was tied to concerns about the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz. But wheat was able to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher with support coming from Monday’s friendly Crop Progress report. Additional support was due to weather forecasts calling for little to no rain for the winter wheat region for the next 10 days.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to higher with early support coming from talk that the war with Iran could be coming to an end soon. But wheat faded its gains, turning lower before the end of the night session due to an updated long term weather forecast calling for rain (8 to 15 day). Light selling was tied to reports that USDA had to decrease Monday’s export inspections estimate as the number released was incorrect. Wheat trimmed session losses late and even managed to pop into the black due to spill over support from the higher corn and soybean market.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session lower with Mpls gapping lower to start. It did not take long for wheat to brush off the selling pressure and turn higher. Weather is the leading supporting factor for wheat as the Northern Plains is forecast to see cold wintery weather over the weekend while hot and dry conditions remain in the major winter wheat region. Expectations for Monday’s Crop Progress are to see little to no progress in spring wheat planting and lower ratings for winter wheat. Technically wheat is testing the upper end of its trading ranges.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.5325 up 41.75 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9125 up 20.25 cents, May KC was at $6.3675 up 46.0 cents.