The week started with corn opening lower, but corn was able to quickly firm and trade with gains. Profit taking and expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress started corn on the defense. But reports of a pause in the peace talks with Iran added support as the delay in negotiations will result in the Strait remaining closed, which will result in higher crude oil prices and tight fertilizer supplies. Strong demand helped push corn higher. Exports for both corn and ethanol remain strong. Rain is in the forecast for the Corn Belt this week, which will likely result in further delays in planting progress. The expectation that corn acreage is switching to later season crops is adding support.
Tuesday’s session saw corn open slightly lower but, like wheat, corn found strength and bounced to trade with solid gains throughout the night. Early support came from a higher crude oil market, which remains strong due to the uncertainty on the Iran war peace talks. It does not appear that a peace deal will be coming in the short term, which means the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Which will keep crude oil prices high and fertilizer supplies tight. Light support spilled over from the sharply higher wheat complex. Weather forecasts calling for rain for much of the Corn Belt and for cold wet conditions for the Northern Plains added support.
AAA is estimating the national average ga price at $4.11 vs $3.97 last month and vs $3.14 last year. They are also estimating the national average diesel fuel price at $544 vs $5.38 last month and vs $3.55 last year.
Hedgers, Dec corn bounced back and tested the $4.95 level which is where you should have made catch up sales.
Corn opened lower in Wednesday’s session but firmed to trade mostly steady throughout the overnight session. Early pressure came from technical selling as most months trade up against resistance (old highs). But once the day session started corn managed to find support. Support came from a sharply higher crude oil contract while light support also came from weather concerns. Rumors are floating that producers are looking at trimming their fertilizer use due to the higher cost has analyst worried about yield declining.
Dr Cordonnier left his Brazil corn production unchanged at 134 MMT but increased his Argentina production estimate 2 MMT to 62 MMT. Dr Cordonnier also thinks US corn planted acreage will decline 1 to 2 million from previous estimates due to late planting and higher input costs.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate shows the start of a seasonal production decline. Last week’s production was at 1.009 million barrels, a decline of 31,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.88 million, a dramatic draw down of 1.067 million barrels from the previous week.
To close out the week Thursday, corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to a slow news day. Profit taking and position squaring ahead of month end added pressure. Dec corn had closed with gains for the past 9 session straight, which pushed corn into an overbought condition. Selling pressure also spilled over from the lower wheat. Losses were kept in check by strong demand (which was evident by last week’s export sales estimate) as well as from weather forecasts calling for cool wet conditions to remain for much of the Northern Plains and Corn Belt for the next 10 days. As long as the strait remains closed and crude oil remains high, corn will see limited selling pressure.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, May corn was at $4.6825 up 13.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.9875 up 14.5 cents.
For the month, May corn was up 7.0 cents. Dec corn was up 10.0 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 1
Corn Weekly Comments May 1
The week started with corn opening lower, but corn was able to quickly firm and trade with gains. Profit taking and expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress started corn on the defense. But reports of a pause in the peace talks with Iran added support as the delay in negotiations will result in the Strait remaining closed, which will result in higher crude oil prices and tight fertilizer supplies. Strong demand helped push corn higher. Exports for both corn and ethanol remain strong. Rain is in the forecast for the Corn Belt this week, which will likely result in further delays in planting progress. The expectation that corn acreage is switching to later season crops is adding support.
Tuesday’s session saw corn open slightly lower but, like wheat, corn found strength and bounced to trade with solid gains throughout the night. Early support came from a higher crude oil market, which remains strong due to the uncertainty on the Iran war peace talks. It does not appear that a peace deal will be coming in the short term, which means the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Which will keep crude oil prices high and fertilizer supplies tight. Light support spilled over from the sharply higher wheat complex. Weather forecasts calling for rain for much of the Corn Belt and for cold wet conditions for the Northern Plains added support.
AAA is estimating the national average ga price at $4.11 vs $3.97 last month and vs $3.14 last year. They are also estimating the national average diesel fuel price at $544 vs $5.38 last month and vs $3.55 last year.
Hedgers, Dec corn bounced back and tested the $4.95 level which is where you should have made catch up sales.
Corn opened lower in Wednesday’s session but firmed to trade mostly steady throughout the overnight session. Early pressure came from technical selling as most months trade up against resistance (old highs). But once the day session started corn managed to find support. Support came from a sharply higher crude oil contract while light support also came from weather concerns. Rumors are floating that producers are looking at trimming their fertilizer use due to the higher cost has analyst worried about yield declining.
Dr Cordonnier left his Brazil corn production unchanged at 134 MMT but increased his Argentina production estimate 2 MMT to 62 MMT. Dr Cordonnier also thinks US corn planted acreage will decline 1 to 2 million from previous estimates due to late planting and higher input costs.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate shows the start of a seasonal production decline. Last week’s production was at 1.009 million barrels, a decline of 31,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.88 million, a dramatic draw down of 1.067 million barrels from the previous week.
To close out the week Thursday, corn opened lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to a slow news day. Profit taking and position squaring ahead of month end added pressure. Dec corn had closed with gains for the past 9 session straight, which pushed corn into an overbought condition. Selling pressure also spilled over from the lower wheat. Losses were kept in check by strong demand (which was evident by last week’s export sales estimate) as well as from weather forecasts calling for cool wet conditions to remain for much of the Northern Plains and Corn Belt for the next 10 days. As long as the strait remains closed and crude oil remains high, corn will see limited selling pressure.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, May corn was at $4.6825 up 13.25 cents. Dec corn was at $4.9875 up 14.5 cents.
For the month, May corn was up 7.0 cents. Dec corn was up 10.0 cents.