Cattle split the week, posting gains in two sessions but heavy losses in the other two for the week ending Thursday. Early selling was tied to technical pressure, but a lower crude oil and higher stock market helped trim losses. A stronger cash trade could not overcome rumors the US is looking at eliminating import tariffs on beef imports.
The week started with cattle opening the week steady to lower, tried to recover, but fell lower. Losses were accelerated throughout the session due to technical selling. A lower close verifies Friday’s key reversal chart formation, which shows a potential trend change. Early losses were kept in check by last week’s strong cash trade, which took place $9 higher than the previous week. Cash traded between $256 and $257. Neither Friday’s or Monday’s close was good from cattle. It is now up to cash to pull cattle back.
Tuesday’s session was a true turn around Tuesday type session as cattle opened the session higher in both contracts with live cattle gapping higher and extending session gains while feeder cattle started with gains and then rallied. Early support spilled over from the lower crude oil market, higher Dow, and lower grain complex. Reports of cash activity taking place on Monday at steady money added support. It is hard to say if the administration’s DOJ antitrust probe into the meat packers had anything to do with the push, but it might not have hurt. Technically the close goes a long way in negating Friday’s key reversal and Monday’s verification of that formation.
Wednesday’s session had cattle open higher in both contracts, but feeder cattle had the most strength gapping higher on the opening. Cattle turned to trade mixed during the session, but the market managed to shake off the selling pressure and hold onto small gains going into the close. Early support spilled over from the lower crude oil and the higher Dow added support. The higher close helps reduce the influence from last week’s bearish chart formation. This week’s cash has been quiet taking place at steady month with last week. Tuesday’s APHIS new world screw worm is showing 1.674 active cases with 6 being within 80 miles of the US Mexican border.
Selling returned to the cattle market with a vengeance on Thursday. Cattle opened the session with small losses but at or near session highs, then sold off. Early selling was tied to a sloppy session in the crude oil, but more so due to pressure from a lower Dow and demand concerns. Rumors that the US is considering eliminating beef import tariffs caused the most pressure. This was encouraged by the President of Brazil during his visit to the White House. Technical selling added to the pressure as traders are concerned about US domestic demand slowing due to cheaper protein sources. A $3 to $5 higher cash trade wasn’t even enough to give cattle support. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 10,005 MT, the second lowest pace for the marketing year.
As of May 3, pasture and range conditions were rated at 30% g/e, 29% fair and 41% p/vp, down 5% from last year.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $248.90 down $4.10. May feeder cattle closed at $367.375 down $4.025.
Cattle Weekly Comments May 8
Cattle Weekly Comments May 8
Cattle split the week, posting gains in two sessions but heavy losses in the other two for the week ending Thursday. Early selling was tied to technical pressure, but a lower crude oil and higher stock market helped trim losses. A stronger cash trade could not overcome rumors the US is looking at eliminating import tariffs on beef imports.
The week started with cattle opening the week steady to lower, tried to recover, but fell lower. Losses were accelerated throughout the session due to technical selling. A lower close verifies Friday’s key reversal chart formation, which shows a potential trend change. Early losses were kept in check by last week’s strong cash trade, which took place $9 higher than the previous week. Cash traded between $256 and $257. Neither Friday’s or Monday’s close was good from cattle. It is now up to cash to pull cattle back.
Tuesday’s session was a true turn around Tuesday type session as cattle opened the session higher in both contracts with live cattle gapping higher and extending session gains while feeder cattle started with gains and then rallied. Early support spilled over from the lower crude oil market, higher Dow, and lower grain complex. Reports of cash activity taking place on Monday at steady money added support. It is hard to say if the administration’s DOJ antitrust probe into the meat packers had anything to do with the push, but it might not have hurt. Technically the close goes a long way in negating Friday’s key reversal and Monday’s verification of that formation.
Wednesday’s session had cattle open higher in both contracts, but feeder cattle had the most strength gapping higher on the opening. Cattle turned to trade mixed during the session, but the market managed to shake off the selling pressure and hold onto small gains going into the close. Early support spilled over from the lower crude oil and the higher Dow added support. The higher close helps reduce the influence from last week’s bearish chart formation. This week’s cash has been quiet taking place at steady month with last week. Tuesday’s APHIS new world screw worm is showing 1.674 active cases with 6 being within 80 miles of the US Mexican border.
Selling returned to the cattle market with a vengeance on Thursday. Cattle opened the session with small losses but at or near session highs, then sold off. Early selling was tied to a sloppy session in the crude oil, but more so due to pressure from a lower Dow and demand concerns. Rumors that the US is considering eliminating beef import tariffs caused the most pressure. This was encouraged by the President of Brazil during his visit to the White House. Technical selling added to the pressure as traders are concerned about US domestic demand slowing due to cheaper protein sources. A $3 to $5 higher cash trade wasn’t even enough to give cattle support. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 10,005 MT, the second lowest pace for the marketing year.
As of May 3, pasture and range conditions were rated at 30% g/e, 29% fair and 41% p/vp, down 5% from last year.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $248.90 down $4.10. May feeder cattle closed at $367.375 down $4.025.