The week for wheat started with wheat opening lower across the board and with Mpls and KC gapping lower. KC was able to recover from the poor opening and followed Chicago to post small gains by the end of the night. Mpls recovered some but remained lower. Wheat turned to trade mixed during the day session. Most of the session Mpls and KC were lower while Chicago held gains. Forecasts calling for rain for the Southern Plains kept a lid on gains, but cool temps did lend light support. Pressure was also due to reports that India was loading vessels of wheat as they start exporting wheat for the first time in 4 years.
Tuesday’s session had wheat opening mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges posted gains. Mpls were under pressure from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress, which showed decent planting progress for last week. Weather forecasts calling for dry conditions to linger in the Northern Plains added support as it should help push progress again this week. Winter wheat was higher on weather forecasts that continue to put rain in and pull rain out of the forecast for the Southern Plains. At this point, the 1 to 5 day is showing rain in CO which could result in some stay showers to move into KS. Weather continues to push crop development in wheat in KS, OK, and CO. Wheat heading in KS was estimated at 70% vs 28% average. OK was reporting heading at 70% vs 43% average. CO was estimating heading at 20% vs 0%. The session seemed to be about taking profits and cleaning up an overbought market.
The trend for wheat opening mixed continued midweek as wheat opened mixed with KC higher while Mpls and Chicago were lower. Early selling was tied to spillover pressure from Tuesday’s lower session. By the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges had accelerated the session pressure and were posting heavy losses. Selling was tied to reports that Iran and the US are close to a peace deal. Stats Canada’s March 31 Stocks estimate added pressure as all wheat stocks were estimated at 19.47 MMT, up 12% from last year. Spring wheat stocks were estimated at 16.1 MMT, up 11% from last year. Losses were kept in check by OK Wheat Commission’s production estimate. They are estimating OK’s wheat production at 47.8 MB vs 106.4 MB last year and vs 94.5 MB for the 10-year average. Technically Mpls Sept is testing its 50% retracement line from the recent low to recent high. This line needs to be held to encourage buyers.
To close out the week, wheat traded with solid losses throughout the session. Early selling was tied to reports that the war with Iran could be coming to an end shortly as the US is waiting on word from Iran as to if they are going to sign the memo outlining the steps to end the war. Light selling was due to forecasts showing light rain and warmer than expected temps for CO overnight. More rain is in the forecast and that added pressure. Position squaring ahead of next week’s reports was also evident.
Estimates for USDA’s May Crop Production report have old crop wheat stocks at 934 MB vs 938 MB last month. This seems high for the fact that USDA needs to increase wheat’s old crop export pace by 25 MB (already 10 MB ahead of pace).
For new crop, USDA estimates all wheat production at 1.735 BB vs 1.985 BB last year. Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.199 BB vs 1.402 BB last year. That puts spring wheat and durum production at 536 MB vs 583 MB last year. Stocks are estimated at 833 MB vs 933 MB from the Ag Outlook Forum and vs 938 MB last year.
World old crop ending stocks are estimated at 282.9 MMT vs 283.1 MMT last month. New crop world ending stocks are estimated at 280.8 MMT.
Technically Mpls Sept broke through its 50% retracement line.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.75, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.90, July Chicago wheat support is $6.25, July KC support is $6.60.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.785 down 25.5 cents while Sept was at $6.995 down 22.25 cents, July Chicago was at $6.19 down 18.75 cents, July KC was at $6.7575 down 18.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments May 8
Wheat Weekly Comments May 8
The week for wheat started with wheat opening lower across the board and with Mpls and KC gapping lower. KC was able to recover from the poor opening and followed Chicago to post small gains by the end of the night. Mpls recovered some but remained lower. Wheat turned to trade mixed during the day session. Most of the session Mpls and KC were lower while Chicago held gains. Forecasts calling for rain for the Southern Plains kept a lid on gains, but cool temps did lend light support. Pressure was also due to reports that India was loading vessels of wheat as they start exporting wheat for the first time in 4 years.
Tuesday’s session had wheat opening mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges posted gains. Mpls were under pressure from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress, which showed decent planting progress for last week. Weather forecasts calling for dry conditions to linger in the Northern Plains added support as it should help push progress again this week. Winter wheat was higher on weather forecasts that continue to put rain in and pull rain out of the forecast for the Southern Plains. At this point, the 1 to 5 day is showing rain in CO which could result in some stay showers to move into KS. Weather continues to push crop development in wheat in KS, OK, and CO. Wheat heading in KS was estimated at 70% vs 28% average. OK was reporting heading at 70% vs 43% average. CO was estimating heading at 20% vs 0%. The session seemed to be about taking profits and cleaning up an overbought market.
The trend for wheat opening mixed continued midweek as wheat opened mixed with KC higher while Mpls and Chicago were lower. Early selling was tied to spillover pressure from Tuesday’s lower session. By the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges had accelerated the session pressure and were posting heavy losses. Selling was tied to reports that Iran and the US are close to a peace deal. Stats Canada’s March 31 Stocks estimate added pressure as all wheat stocks were estimated at 19.47 MMT, up 12% from last year. Spring wheat stocks were estimated at 16.1 MMT, up 11% from last year. Losses were kept in check by OK Wheat Commission’s production estimate. They are estimating OK’s wheat production at 47.8 MB vs 106.4 MB last year and vs 94.5 MB for the 10-year average. Technically Mpls Sept is testing its 50% retracement line from the recent low to recent high. This line needs to be held to encourage buyers.
To close out the week, wheat traded with solid losses throughout the session. Early selling was tied to reports that the war with Iran could be coming to an end shortly as the US is waiting on word from Iran as to if they are going to sign the memo outlining the steps to end the war. Light selling was due to forecasts showing light rain and warmer than expected temps for CO overnight. More rain is in the forecast and that added pressure. Position squaring ahead of next week’s reports was also evident.
Estimates for USDA’s May Crop Production report have old crop wheat stocks at 934 MB vs 938 MB last month. This seems high for the fact that USDA needs to increase wheat’s old crop export pace by 25 MB (already 10 MB ahead of pace).
For new crop, USDA estimates all wheat production at 1.735 BB vs 1.985 BB last year. Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.199 BB vs 1.402 BB last year. That puts spring wheat and durum production at 536 MB vs 583 MB last year. Stocks are estimated at 833 MB vs 933 MB from the Ag Outlook Forum and vs 938 MB last year.
World old crop ending stocks are estimated at 282.9 MMT vs 283.1 MMT last month. New crop world ending stocks are estimated at 280.8 MMT.
Technically Mpls Sept broke through its 50% retracement line.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.75, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.90, July Chicago wheat support is $6.25, July KC support is $6.60.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.785 down 25.5 cents while Sept was at $6.995 down 22.25 cents, July Chicago was at $6.19 down 18.75 cents, July KC was at $6.7575 down 18.75 cents.