It was another volatile week in the cattle markets. Strong packer cash bids helped to support the live cattle market while rumors that the administrations were going to reduce beef import tariffs and allow beef imports to increase pressured the feeder cattle. The continued war in Iran continued to add pressure due to spiking energy prices.
Cattle opened the week higher and traded with gains to start the session. Early support was due to technical buying as it appears cattle are on their way to make a test of recent highs. But since we are in a headlines type environment, a question from a reporter changed the course of the cattle market. Trump was commenting on his administrations accomplishments and voiced his displeasure in not succeeding in one, getting the price of beef lower. That was enough to get the price of beef lower as feeder cattle dropped $5 before he finished the sentence. The White House is looking at lowering import tariffs and increasing foreign imports of beef. Cash bids were reported taking place between $256 and $260 last week. Technically cattle are in a tough spot, as the technicals have turned bearish while fundamentals remain friendly.
Heavy selling pressure hit the cattle markets on Tuesday. The front month June live cattle and May feeder cattle contracts are tied to cash and will behave as cash behaves. But the deferred months are at the whims of the news. With the administration backing away from increasing import quotes and removing tariffs on beef imports once would have expected to see cattle perform better, which was the case early. But a sharp rally in crude oil and a slump in the stock market resulted in a lower cattle market. USDA put 2025 beef production at 26.071 billion pounds. 2026 beef production was estimated at 25.616 billion pounds, 241 million pounds below last month. 2027 beef production is estimated at 25.378 billion pounds. Per capita consumption is expected to increase from 59.3 pounds per person to 60.0 pounds per person in 2026.
Cattle gapped higher on Wednesday but then waffled around for a bit before finding support to rally and close with solid gains. Early support from news that the administration was going to hold off on decreasing beef import tariffs and open the US to higher imports of foreign beef. Reports of cash trading at $260 added support. Feeder cattle found support late in the session from a fading corn market. As of Monday, there were 1,701 active new screw worm cases in Mexico. Fourteen are within 79 to 99 miles of the border.
Thursday’s session had cattle gapping higher again. This time cattle managed to with solid gains up to noon, but then a crack emerged and cattle started to fade. Early support came from another strong cash trade as cash activity was reported at taking place at $268 on Wednesday, $7 to $8 above last week and another new all-time high for cash. Light support came from the updated Drought Monitor Map which shows 48% of the nation’s cow calf operations are sitting with pasture condition ratings at 40% p/vp vs 10% last year. This will likely prevent much in the way of herd expansion. Late session selling was tied to the China Summit as China is pushing back from importing US beef due to high price. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 7,538 MT, which is the second lowest sales pace for the year.
As of May 10, pasture and range conditions were rated at 31% g/e, 28% fair and 41% p/vp, up 1% from last year.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $253.90 up $5.00. May feeder cattle closed at $368.675 up $1.30.
Cattle Weekly Comments May 15
Cattle Weekly Comments May 15
It was another volatile week in the cattle markets. Strong packer cash bids helped to support the live cattle market while rumors that the administrations were going to reduce beef import tariffs and allow beef imports to increase pressured the feeder cattle. The continued war in Iran continued to add pressure due to spiking energy prices.
Cattle opened the week higher and traded with gains to start the session. Early support was due to technical buying as it appears cattle are on their way to make a test of recent highs. But since we are in a headlines type environment, a question from a reporter changed the course of the cattle market. Trump was commenting on his administrations accomplishments and voiced his displeasure in not succeeding in one, getting the price of beef lower. That was enough to get the price of beef lower as feeder cattle dropped $5 before he finished the sentence. The White House is looking at lowering import tariffs and increasing foreign imports of beef. Cash bids were reported taking place between $256 and $260 last week. Technically cattle are in a tough spot, as the technicals have turned bearish while fundamentals remain friendly.
Heavy selling pressure hit the cattle markets on Tuesday. The front month June live cattle and May feeder cattle contracts are tied to cash and will behave as cash behaves. But the deferred months are at the whims of the news. With the administration backing away from increasing import quotes and removing tariffs on beef imports once would have expected to see cattle perform better, which was the case early. But a sharp rally in crude oil and a slump in the stock market resulted in a lower cattle market. USDA put 2025 beef production at 26.071 billion pounds. 2026 beef production was estimated at 25.616 billion pounds, 241 million pounds below last month. 2027 beef production is estimated at 25.378 billion pounds. Per capita consumption is expected to increase from 59.3 pounds per person to 60.0 pounds per person in 2026.
Cattle gapped higher on Wednesday but then waffled around for a bit before finding support to rally and close with solid gains. Early support from news that the administration was going to hold off on decreasing beef import tariffs and open the US to higher imports of foreign beef. Reports of cash trading at $260 added support. Feeder cattle found support late in the session from a fading corn market. As of Monday, there were 1,701 active new screw worm cases in Mexico. Fourteen are within 79 to 99 miles of the border.
Thursday’s session had cattle gapping higher again. This time cattle managed to with solid gains up to noon, but then a crack emerged and cattle started to fade. Early support came from another strong cash trade as cash activity was reported at taking place at $268 on Wednesday, $7 to $8 above last week and another new all-time high for cash. Light support came from the updated Drought Monitor Map which shows 48% of the nation’s cow calf operations are sitting with pasture condition ratings at 40% p/vp vs 10% last year. This will likely prevent much in the way of herd expansion. Late session selling was tied to the China Summit as China is pushing back from importing US beef due to high price. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 7,538 MT, which is the second lowest sales pace for the year.
As of May 10, pasture and range conditions were rated at 31% g/e, 28% fair and 41% p/vp, up 1% from last year.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $253.90 up $5.00. May feeder cattle closed at $368.675 up $1.30.