Cattle Weekly Comments May 29

Cattle Weekly Comments May 29

Cattle posted losses to start the short week and end the week but posted solid gains in the middle of the short week. Volatility remains high in the cattle market as this week most of the attention was focused on outside influences (concerning economics).

Cattle opened the session lower across the board with selling being influenced by Friday’s negative COF report. The report showed more cattle in feedlots than expected (first increase in numbers in 18 months), more placements than expected, and lower marketing. But cattle have been under heavy pressure the past week, so once cattle hit support levels, buying helped cattle push higher. Technical buying combined with expectations for a steady to firm cash trade to help cattle trade with gains throughout most of the session. But selling moved into the market late in the session resulting in cattle fading into the red on the close. Domestic demand concerns added to the pressure as traders are expecting the Memorial Day weekend beef demand to be disappointing. Cash traded at a record high levels early last week ($260 to $265) but slipped at the end of the week to end at $258 to $260.

Buying took charge of the cattle markets midweek ass cattle opened the session higher and near session lows. Early support spilled over from the sharply lower crude oil market as well as from technical buying as cattle have turned to be slightly over sold and in need of a correction. A stronger Dow added support. Cash activity has been limited this week. Technically look for June live cattle to test the $253.35 level and look for Aug feeder cattle to test the $365.75 level.

Cattle gapped higher on the opening bell. Support was due to buying from traders trying to bring futures more in line with cash as cash is holding a huge premium to futures. Cash activity has been limited this week. Support came from a lower crude oil contract. But once crude turned higher cattle started to fade its gains. Light selling was also due to continued chatter about the administration looking to lower the cost of beef to help get inflation in line.

As of May 24, pasture and range conditions were rated at 29% g/e, 27% fair and 44% p/vp, up 1% from last week.

For the week, June live cattle closed at $248.25 down $1.05. Aug feeder cattle closed at $348.425 down $1.425.

For the month, June live cattle closed down $5.75. Aug feeder cattle closed down $25.10.

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