After the long weekend, corn gapped lower to start the session and extended losses throughout the night. At some point during the night, the expectation that demand will continue to put underlying support under the corn market helped corn recover. But with reports of a peace deal close at hand and a sharply lower crude oil market, corn could not hold the strength. Improving weather conditions and the expectation that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show another strong planting week and good emergence weighed on corn. Reports that Argentina is set to decrease their export tax on corn from 8.5% to 5.5% over the next two years added pressure. As of May 22, Brazil’s first crop corn harvest was estimated at 95% complete vs 91% last week and 95% average.
Corn opened higher in Wednesday’s session but faded to trade with small losses throughout the night. Technical buying helped corn start the session with gains, but Tuesday afternoon’s strong planting progress estimate in the Crop Progress report limited session gains. OH is the only state behind the 5-year average planting pace for both corn and soybeans and will continue to be delayed due to rain. Light selling was tied to the lack of threatening weather as although weather forecasts for the next 14 days are calling for warm dry conditions, the heat will help push emergence and get the crop off to a good start. The eastern Corn Belt and Delta are expected to see heavy rains. A sharply lower crude oil market added pressure. Dr Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 136 MMT but increased his Argentina corn production estimate 1 MMT to 63 MMT. Mexico and the US have started USMCA talks this week.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure to post solid gains by early morning. After seeing heavy pressure in the 5 of the last 9 sessions, technical buying was evident once corn tested major support. A firmer crude oil market added support. Expectations that the IRS/Treasury public hearings on 45Z, which are taking place this week, will be friendly to the biofuels industry added strength. Weather forecasts calling for the next 14 days to see most of the US to have above normal temps and below average precip kept gains limited early in the session as that is what is needed to get the corn crop development to get caught up to normal. US and Mexico USMCA talks continue through the week.
A major farm advisory service told customers to lift corn hedges today as they expect China to lift corn import restrictions. Seems unlikely when China does not need much corn due to this year’s poor quality wheat crop, which is being harvested now. Either way, the rumor of this helped support corn.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was estimated at 1.089 million barrels, a decrease of 22,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.97 million barrels, up 93,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand surged sharply higher.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.4675 down 16.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.75 down 11.5 cents.
For the month, July corn was down 28.0 cents. Dec corn was down 19.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 29
Corn Weekly Comments May 29
After the long weekend, corn gapped lower to start the session and extended losses throughout the night. At some point during the night, the expectation that demand will continue to put underlying support under the corn market helped corn recover. But with reports of a peace deal close at hand and a sharply lower crude oil market, corn could not hold the strength. Improving weather conditions and the expectation that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show another strong planting week and good emergence weighed on corn. Reports that Argentina is set to decrease their export tax on corn from 8.5% to 5.5% over the next two years added pressure. As of May 22, Brazil’s first crop corn harvest was estimated at 95% complete vs 91% last week and 95% average.
Corn opened higher in Wednesday’s session but faded to trade with small losses throughout the night. Technical buying helped corn start the session with gains, but Tuesday afternoon’s strong planting progress estimate in the Crop Progress report limited session gains. OH is the only state behind the 5-year average planting pace for both corn and soybeans and will continue to be delayed due to rain. Light selling was tied to the lack of threatening weather as although weather forecasts for the next 14 days are calling for warm dry conditions, the heat will help push emergence and get the crop off to a good start. The eastern Corn Belt and Delta are expected to see heavy rains. A sharply lower crude oil market added pressure. Dr Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 136 MMT but increased his Argentina corn production estimate 1 MMT to 63 MMT. Mexico and the US have started USMCA talks this week.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure to post solid gains by early morning. After seeing heavy pressure in the 5 of the last 9 sessions, technical buying was evident once corn tested major support. A firmer crude oil market added support. Expectations that the IRS/Treasury public hearings on 45Z, which are taking place this week, will be friendly to the biofuels industry added strength. Weather forecasts calling for the next 14 days to see most of the US to have above normal temps and below average precip kept gains limited early in the session as that is what is needed to get the corn crop development to get caught up to normal. US and Mexico USMCA talks continue through the week.
A major farm advisory service told customers to lift corn hedges today as they expect China to lift corn import restrictions. Seems unlikely when China does not need much corn due to this year’s poor quality wheat crop, which is being harvested now. Either way, the rumor of this helped support corn.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was estimated at 1.089 million barrels, a decrease of 22,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.97 million barrels, up 93,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand surged sharply higher.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.4675 down 16.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.75 down 11.5 cents.
For the month, July corn was down 28.0 cents. Dec corn was down 19.25 cents.